С сегодняшнего дня, уровни Акселя и торговый план. Публикуются по этому адресу.-- http://forexniksaj.blogspot.com/
четверг, 17 декабря 2009 г.
среда, 16 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0612 GMT 1.4537 89.53 1.6244 1.0411
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 1.4355 92.95 1.6235 1.0591
3rd Resistance 1.4777 90.78 1.6380 1.0500
2nd Resistance 1.4666 90.11 1.6337 1.0453
1st Resistance 1.4572 89.95 1.6319 1.0430
Pivot* 1.4569 89.38 1.6265 1.0382
1st Support 1.4503 89.13 1.6207 1.0363
2nd Support 1.4480 88.78 1.6170 1.0345
3rd Support 1.4450 88.32 1.6115 1.0300
Intraday EUR/USD: The weak tone dominates the market following the break into fresh 10-11 week lows below 1.4586. Bears are testing the 1.4500 area, and back-up support lies at 1.4480 and in the 1.4450 area. Above 1.4572 would provide relief, although only regaining ground above 1.4666 would suggest a basing attempt is underway. Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Bulls extend the recovery off the Dec. 9 low at 87.36 following Tuesday's probe above 89.81. Above 89.95 is required to bring the focus back onto the key Dec. 4 high at 90.78, and threaten to leave the 2009 low at 84.82 as a significant long-term low. Dips will be regarded as corrective while above 88.78.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Remains trapped within a 5-day lateral consolidation pattern, consolidating last week's 1.6721/1.6170 decline. While the 1.6380 area caps corrective gains, bears will look to extend the dominant weak tone and renew pressure on the Dec. 9 reaction low at 1.6170. Below there would confirm a bear pennant/rectangle consolidation pattern and create room for further weakness towards projected support at 1.6115. However, given the strong underlying bear momentum, there is scope for the 1.6000 area. Above 1.6319 would provide relief, although only regaining ground above 1.6380 would lift the tone and open 1.6425.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Bulls have claimed the upper hand by forging a fresh 1-month high at 1.0430 Tuesday. While corrective dips are contained above 1.0363, room exists for renewed bull pressure on 1.0430, with the Oct. 1 descending triangle high at 1.0453 the key target. Solid support lies in the 1.0300 area.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0635 GMT 0.8947 130.16 1.5135 0.9006
3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bullish
200 day ma 0.8854 133.30 1.5176 0.8434
3rd Resistance 0.9069 131.60 1.5204 0.9198
2nd Resistance 0.9044 131.01 1.5178 0.9173
1st Resistance 0.8992 130.74 1.5146 0.9091
Pivot* 0.8955 130.23 1.5125 0.9177
1st Support 0.8929 129.54 1.5117 0.8967
2nd Support 0.8903 129.36 1.5106 0.8949
3rd Support 0.8890 128.78 1.5096 0.8909
Intraday EUR/GBP: Bears take control of the near-term as they look to build on Tuesday's sharp break below 0.8982. Below 0.8929 would prompt further weakness towards 0.8903 and 0.8890, although only below there would expose the key Nov. 17 reaction low at 0.8835. Regaining ground above the 0.8982/0.8992 resistance area is required to question the bearish outlook, opening 0.9044. Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Has become directionless, but perhaps with a slight bearish bias due to last Friday's sharp rejection at the 131.60 high. Below Monday's low at 129.36 would put the Dec. 9 low at 128.78 under renewed bear pressure, and a clean break below there would create room for further weakness towards the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93. Above 130.74 is required to improve the near-term outlook and threaten a retest of the 131.60 high.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Bulls are in control after setting fresh 4-week highs above 1.5135, and closing above a 1-year bear trendline at 1.5104 on the weekly chart. Further strength is favoured towards the Nov. 19 spike high at 1.5146, and sustained gains above there would re-open the Oct. 30 spike high at 1.5178. Only below Tuesday's low at 1.5117 would question the bullish outlook and expose 1.5096.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Bears have grasped near-term control to challenge the neckline of a 2-month head-and-shoulders top pattern, at 0.8977. A successful break below 0.8967 will expose the 0.8949 and 0.8909 lows, but with room for further weakness towards projected downside targets at 0.8867 and 0.8745. Regaining ground above 0.9091 is required to defer the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=Wj6IM%2FI4Pi3MWPyNeyF0mw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 16, 2009 02:23 ET (07:23 GMT)
вторник, 15 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels: Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0539 GMT 1.4638 88.90 1.6285 1.0335
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Range Bullish
Weekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 1.4353 92.98 1.6235 1.0595
3rd Resistance 1.4865 89.81 1.6425 1.0400
2nd Resistance 1.4783 89.32 1.6380 1.0368
1st Resistance 1.4700 89.01 1.6337 1.0345
Pivot* 1.4648 88.75 1.6279 1.0323
1st Support 1.4617 88.32 1.6198 1.0296
2nd Support 1.4586 87.90 1.6170 1.0270
3rd Support 1.4480 87.72 1.6115 1.0235
Intraday EUR/USD: The weak tone dominates the market following last week's clean break of a 10-month bull support line. Consolidation off the 1.4586 low should be capped beneath recent congestion resistance in the 1.4777.0/1.4783 area, and in the meantime, risk exists for renewed bear pressure on the 1.4586 low. Below there would create scope for further weakness towards the 1.4480/1.4440 support area. Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Monday's inside day highlights the lack of direction in this market within the medium-term 84.82/90.78 range. The near-term bias appears to be skewed slightly towards the bull camp, and a break above 89.32 would back this view, re-opening the Dec. 11 reaction high at 89.81. Loss of Monday's low at 88.32 would put near-term bears in control and expose the higher low at 87.90.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Remains trapped within a 4-day lateral consolidation pattern, consolidating the recent 1.6721/1.6170 decline. While the 1.6380 area caps corrective gains, bears will look to extend the dominant weak tone and renew pressure on the Dec. 9 reaction low at 1.6170. Below there would confirm a bear pennant/rectangle consolidation pattern and create room for further weakness towards projected support at 1.6115. However, given the strong underlying bear momentum, there is scope for the 1.6000 area. Regaining ground above 1.6380 would provide temporary relief and open 1.6425.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Bulls have claimed the upper hand by forging a fresh 1-month high at 1.0368 last Friday. Consolidation is underway, but while dips are limited to Monday's low at 1.0296, room exists for renewed pressure on the 1.0368 high. A break through there would create room for 1.0400 and the Oct. 1 lower high at 1.0453. Below 1.0296 would extend corrective weakness towards the 1.0270 area, but dips should be limited while above the 1.0235 higher low.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0615 GMT 0.8991 130.17 1.5130 0.9133
3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8853 133.33 1.5176 0.8427
3rd Resistance 0.9095 131.60 1.5178 0.9216
2nd Resistance 0.9069 131.01 1.5146 0.9198
1st Resistance 0.9044 130.68 1.5134 0.9173
Pivot* 0.9003 129.96 1.5122 0.9177
1st Support 0.8950 129.36 1.5114 0.9060
2nd Support 0.8934 128.78 1.5106 0.9017
3rd Support 0.8903 126.93 1.5096 0.8976
Intraday EUR/GBP: Weakens below last week's low at 0.8992 to put euro bears in control of the near-term direction. Confirmation of a lower high at 0.9095 promotes room for further weakness towards projected targets at 0.8950 and 0.8934, although weakness is not wholly convincing. Regaining ground above 0.9044 is required to question the bearish outlook and confirm a bear failure, while re-opening the 0.9095 lower high at the same time. Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Has become directionless, but perhaps with a slight bearish bias due to last Friday's sharp rejection at the 131.60 high. Below Monday's low at 129.36 would put the Dec. 9 low at 128.78 under renewed bear pressure, and a clean break below there would create room for further weakness towards the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93. Above 130.68 is required to improve the near-term outlook and threaten a retest of the 131.60 high.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: The bulls are in control after setting a 3-week high at 1.5134 last Friday, and closing above a 1-year bear trendline at 1.5104 on the weekly chart. The 1.5134 high is back in focus, and a break through there would extend the recovery towards the Nov. 19 reaction high at 1.5146. Concerted strength would create potential for the late October spike high at 1.5178. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.5106, which protects the Dec. 9 higher low at 1.5096.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Maintains an overall bearish near-term bias despite this recovery off the Dec. 9 low at 0.9017. While last Friday's high at 0.9198 caps, room exists for renewed bear pressure on 0.9017, threatening room for further weakness towards the neckline of an 8-week head-and-shoulders top, at 0.8976. Only above 0.9198 would question the bearish outlook and open 0.9293.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=gHCIfZmwglmkdJuxz2PJUA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 15, 2009 02:12 ET (07:12 GMT)
понедельник, 14 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNLONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF Spot 0603 GMT 1.4634 88.59 1.6321 1.0330 3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish Weekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Range 200 day ma 1.4351 93.03 1.6234 1.0598 3rd Resistance 1.4865 90.78 1.6375 1.0453 2nd Resistance 1.4783 89.81 1.6337 1.0400 1st Resistance 1.4700 89.32 1.6270 1.0368 Pivot* 1.4659 89.03 1.6265 1.0315 1st Support 1.4586 88.39 1.6170 1.0302 2nd Support 1.4480 87.73 1.6115 1.0266 3rd Support 1.4440 87.36 1.6023 1.0235Intraday EUR/USD: The weak tone dominates the market following last week's clean break of a 10-month bull support line, and the break below 1.4665 brings the 1.4480/1.4440 support area into focus. Corrective gains should be capped beneath recent congestion resistance in the 1.4783/1.4777 area, and only a sustained break above there would lift the tone, opening 1.4865.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Weakness off Friday's high at 89.81 is testing important intraday support at 88.39. A clean break below there would create room for further weakness towards the 87.73 higher low, which will look to protect the Dec. 9 low at 87.36. However, keeping 88.39 intact, followed by a break above 89.32 would suggest a rejection of the 87.73 low, and open the 89.81 high. Aided by last week's close in the upper half of the weekly range, bulls may lay a claim to holding the upper hand, and a break through 89.81 would bring the focus back onto the Dec. 4 reaction high at 90.78.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Bears are looking to extend the weak tone an is putting pressure on the Dec. 9 reaction low at 1.6170. Below there would confirm a bear pennant termination high at 1.6337 and promote room for further weakness towards projected support at 1.6115, although given the strong underlying bear momentum, there is scope for the 1.6000 area. Regaining ground above 1.6270 would provide temporary relief, although corrective gains should be limited to the 1.6337/1.6375 resistance area.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Bulls have claimed the upper hand to force a break into fresh 1-month highs, and are set to forge further gains towards 1.0400 and the Oct. 1 lower high at 1.0453. Corrective dips should be contained above former range highs at 1.0302, with 1.0235 providing back-up.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
second table Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD Spot 0648 GMT 0.9009 129.63 1.5123 0.9063 3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bullish Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish 200 day ma 0.8852 133.36 1.5177 0.8420 3rd Resistance 0.9114 131.60 1.5178 0.9293 2nd Resistance 0.9095 131.01 1.5146 0.9216 1st Resistance 0.9069 130.68 1.5134 0.9198 Pivot* 0.9014 130.59 1.5123 0.9177 1st Support 0.8950 128.78 1.5116 0.9050 2nd Support 0.8934 126.93 1.5106 0.9017 3rd Support 0.8903 125.00 1.5096 0.8973Intraday EUR/GBP: Weakens below last week's low at 0.8992 to put euro bears in control of the near-term direction. Confirmation of a lower high at 0.9095 promotes room for further weakness towards projected targets at 0.8950 and 0.8934, although weakness is not wholly convincing. Regaining ground above 0.9069 is required to question the bearish outlook and re-open the 0.9095 lower high.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Friday's sharp rejection at the 131.60 high suggests the Dec. 9 low at 128.78 is to come under renewed bear pressure, and a clean break below there would create room for further weakness towards the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93. Above 130.68 would provide temporary relief, although only regaining ground above 131.60 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Bulls are in control after setting a 3-week high at 1.5134 Friday and closing above a 1-year bear trendline at 1.5104 on the weekly chart. Above 1.5134 would extend the recovery towards the Nov. 19 reaction high at 1.5146. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.5106, which protects the Dec. 9 higher low at 1.5096.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Maintains an overall bearish bias despite this recovery off 0.9050. While Friday's high at 0.9198 caps, room exists for renewed bear pressure on the Dec. 9 low at 0.9017, threatening room for further weakness towards the neckline of an 8-week head-and-shoulders top, at 0.8973. Only above 0.9198 would question the bearish outlook and open 0.9293.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=uvMZ4KKPq8PC68nFa%2B2Cgg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 14, 2009 03:04 ET (08:04 GMT)
пятница, 11 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
Колонка Dow Jones Newswires, автор Фрэнсис Брей, магистр технического анализа /MSTA/
ЛОНДОН, 11 декабря. /Dow Jones/. Скользящие графики на 24 часа:
Котировки спот: Пара евро/доллар США Пара доллар США/японская иена Пара британский фунт/доллар США Пара доллар США/швейцарский франк
Спот на 06.03 по Гринвичу 1.4737 88.88 1.6329 1.0258
Трехдневный тренд Вниз Вверх Вниз Вверх
Недельный тренд Вверх Вниз Вниз Вниз
200-дн. скол.ср 1.4348 93.07 1.6234 1.0601
3-е сопротивление 1.4805 90.11 1.6430 1.0338
2-е сопротивление 1.4783 89.56 1.6375 1.0303
1-е сопротивление 1.4761 89.18 1.6345 1.0284
Точка разворота* 1.4726 88.13 1.6279 1.0266
1-я поддержка 1.4693 88.39 1.6215 1.0237
2-я поддержка 1.4665 87.73 1.6170 1.0220
3-я поддержка 1.4626 87.36 1.6115 1.0200
Котировки спот: Пара евро/британский фунт Пара евро/японская иена Пара евро/швейцарский франк Пара австралийский доллар/доллар США
Спот на 06.27 по Гринвичу 0.9031 131.00 1.5119 0.9168
Трехдневный тренд Вверх Вверх Вверх Боковой тренд
Недельный тренд Вверх Вниз Вниз Вверх
200-дн. скол. ср. 0.8850 133.40 1.5177 0.8412
3-е сопротивление 0.9153 132.39 1.5178 0.9293
2-е сопротивление 0.9095 131.66 1.5146 0.9216
1-е сопротивление 0.9066 131.29 1.5133 0.9185
Точка разворота* 0.9046 129.78 1.5118 0.9148
1-я поддержка 0.9005 130.36 1.5106 0.9112
2-я поддержка 0.8992 129.62 1.5096 0.9017
3-я поддержка 0.8934 128.78 1.5092 0.8971
*Точка разворота рассчитывается как сумма максимума, минимума и уровня закрытия, разделенная на три.
/Продолжение следует/
ЛОНДОН, 11 декабря. /Dow Jones/. Скользящие графики на 24 часа:
Котировки спот: Пара евро/доллар США Пара доллар США/японская иена Пара британский фунт/доллар США Пара доллар США/швейцарский франк
Спот на 06.03 по Гринвичу 1.4737 88.88 1.6329 1.0258
Трехдневный тренд Вниз Вверх Вниз Вверх
Недельный тренд Вверх Вниз Вниз Вниз
200-дн. скол.ср 1.4348 93.07 1.6234 1.0601
3-е сопротивление 1.4805 90.11 1.6430 1.0338
2-е сопротивление 1.4783 89.56 1.6375 1.0303
1-е сопротивление 1.4761 89.18 1.6345 1.0284
Точка разворота* 1.4726 88.13 1.6279 1.0266
1-я поддержка 1.4693 88.39 1.6215 1.0237
2-я поддержка 1.4665 87.73 1.6170 1.0220
3-я поддержка 1.4626 87.36 1.6115 1.0200
Котировки спот: Пара евро/британский фунт Пара евро/японская иена Пара евро/швейцарский франк Пара австралийский доллар/доллар США
Спот на 06.27 по Гринвичу 0.9031 131.00 1.5119 0.9168
Трехдневный тренд Вверх Вверх Вверх Боковой тренд
Недельный тренд Вверх Вниз Вниз Вверх
200-дн. скол. ср. 0.8850 133.40 1.5177 0.8412
3-е сопротивление 0.9153 132.39 1.5178 0.9293
2-е сопротивление 0.9095 131.66 1.5146 0.9216
1-е сопротивление 0.9066 131.29 1.5133 0.9185
Точка разворота* 0.9046 129.78 1.5118 0.9148
1-я поддержка 0.9005 130.36 1.5106 0.9112
2-я поддержка 0.8992 129.62 1.5096 0.9017
3-я поддержка 0.8934 128.78 1.5092 0.8971
*Точка разворота рассчитывается как сумма максимума, минимума и уровня закрытия, разделенная на три.
/Продолжение следует/
четверг, 10 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0554 GMT 1.4709 87.80 1.6243 1.0284
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bearish
200 day ma 1.4344 93.11 1.6233 1.0604
3rd Resistance 1.4906 89.07 1.6430 1.0381
2nd Resistance 1.4864 88.70 1.6375 1.0338
1st Resistance 1.4760 88.39 1.6315 1.0302
Pivot* 1.4724 87.98 1.6269 1.0263
1st Support 1.4665 87.36 1.6170 1.0247
2nd Support 1.4626 87.10 1.6115 1.0220
3rd Support 1.4509 86.50 1.6023 1.0165
Intraday EUR/USD: Stages a recovery off Wednesday's low at 1.4665 to halt the 5-day down move and protect the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626. However, a break above 1.4760 is required to build on the recovery, and bring scope for further corrective gains towards the 1.4906 area (50% retracement of the 1.5142/1.4665 decline). At this stage, only above there would upgrade the recovery, but the market may be looking to form a head-and-shoulders top on the daily chart. Loss of 1.4626 would put bears in control and expose the Oct. 2 higher low at 1.4480.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance below the 50% retracement level before finding support at 87.36. The recovery appears sluggish, although there is scope for further gains towards the 89.07 area, and only above there would the recovery be given an upgrade. Loss of 87.36 would deepen the setback towards 87.10 and 86.50.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Set a fresh near-term low below 1.6272 to extend the 2-3 week decline and complete a head-and-shoulders top. With the 1.6430 area capping the upside, room exists for renewed bear pressure on the 1.6170 low, creating scope for further weakness towards 1.6115 and the 1.6000 area. Above Wednesday's high at 1.6375 would provide relief, although only above 1.6430 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Wednesday's hanging man suggests a temporary top to this 5-day rally has been reached at 1.0302. However, corrective dips will find support at 1.0220 initially, and only a break below there would indicate room for further corrective weakness towards 1.0165/1.0140. Above 1.0302 would extend the powerful advance to 1.0338 and 1.0381.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0633 GMT 0.9056 129.26 1.5122 0.9129
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8848 133.43 1.5178 0.8405
3rd Resistance 0.9153 131.66 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 130.98 1.5135 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9095 130.36 1.5130 0.9177
Pivot* 0.9052 129.55 1.5112 0.9072
1st Support 0.9005 128.78 1.5118 0.9017
2nd Support 0.8992 126.93 1.5096 0.8971
3rd Support 0.8950 125.00 1.5076 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) is threatening a break through 0.9095 to extend the move up to the 0.9114 lower high. Above there would open the Nov. 30 reaction high at 0.9153. Only failing to break 0.9095 would negate the bullish outlook and bring the focus back onto the 0.8992 low.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Sharply extends the setback from the Dec. 4 reaction high at 134.54 Wednesday, touching 128.78 before staging a recovery. The 128.78 area represents 76.4% retracement of the 126.93/134.54 advance, and bulls will want to keep this level intact in order to build on the recovery and re-open the 134.54 high in the medium-term. Regaining ground above 130.36 is required to open the 131.66 area. Only below 128.78 would question the near-term bullish outlook and expose the Nov. 27 reaction low.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Consolidation off Monday's 7-day high at 1.5130 has been contained at 1.5096 following Wednesday's strong recovery. The focus is back on the 1.5130 high, and a break through there would open 1.5135 and 1.5146. Below 1.5118 would suggest longer consolidation is required, and create scope for a return to the 1.5096 low.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: An 8-week head-and-shoulders top is forming on the daily chart, and pressure is building on the neckline at 0.8971. The 10-month bull support line at 0.9130 for this week has been breached, and a break below 0.9017 would expose the key 0.8971 neckline. Below there would expose the 0.8949/0.8909 reactions lows, and would highlight a longer-term target in the 0.8500 area. Regaining ground above 0.9177 would provide relief, opening 0.9216.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplu...VUORfG7w%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 10, 2009 02:23 ET (07:23 GMT)
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0554 GMT 1.4709 87.80 1.6243 1.0284
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bearish
200 day ma 1.4344 93.11 1.6233 1.0604
3rd Resistance 1.4906 89.07 1.6430 1.0381
2nd Resistance 1.4864 88.70 1.6375 1.0338
1st Resistance 1.4760 88.39 1.6315 1.0302
Pivot* 1.4724 87.98 1.6269 1.0263
1st Support 1.4665 87.36 1.6170 1.0247
2nd Support 1.4626 87.10 1.6115 1.0220
3rd Support 1.4509 86.50 1.6023 1.0165
Intraday EUR/USD: Stages a recovery off Wednesday's low at 1.4665 to halt the 5-day down move and protect the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626. However, a break above 1.4760 is required to build on the recovery, and bring scope for further corrective gains towards the 1.4906 area (50% retracement of the 1.5142/1.4665 decline). At this stage, only above there would upgrade the recovery, but the market may be looking to form a head-and-shoulders top on the daily chart. Loss of 1.4626 would put bears in control and expose the Oct. 2 higher low at 1.4480.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance below the 50% retracement level before finding support at 87.36. The recovery appears sluggish, although there is scope for further gains towards the 89.07 area, and only above there would the recovery be given an upgrade. Loss of 87.36 would deepen the setback towards 87.10 and 86.50.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Set a fresh near-term low below 1.6272 to extend the 2-3 week decline and complete a head-and-shoulders top. With the 1.6430 area capping the upside, room exists for renewed bear pressure on the 1.6170 low, creating scope for further weakness towards 1.6115 and the 1.6000 area. Above Wednesday's high at 1.6375 would provide relief, although only above 1.6430 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Wednesday's hanging man suggests a temporary top to this 5-day rally has been reached at 1.0302. However, corrective dips will find support at 1.0220 initially, and only a break below there would indicate room for further corrective weakness towards 1.0165/1.0140. Above 1.0302 would extend the powerful advance to 1.0338 and 1.0381.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0633 GMT 0.9056 129.26 1.5122 0.9129
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8848 133.43 1.5178 0.8405
3rd Resistance 0.9153 131.66 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 130.98 1.5135 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9095 130.36 1.5130 0.9177
Pivot* 0.9052 129.55 1.5112 0.9072
1st Support 0.9005 128.78 1.5118 0.9017
2nd Support 0.8992 126.93 1.5096 0.8971
3rd Support 0.8950 125.00 1.5076 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) is threatening a break through 0.9095 to extend the move up to the 0.9114 lower high. Above there would open the Nov. 30 reaction high at 0.9153. Only failing to break 0.9095 would negate the bullish outlook and bring the focus back onto the 0.8992 low.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Sharply extends the setback from the Dec. 4 reaction high at 134.54 Wednesday, touching 128.78 before staging a recovery. The 128.78 area represents 76.4% retracement of the 126.93/134.54 advance, and bulls will want to keep this level intact in order to build on the recovery and re-open the 134.54 high in the medium-term. Regaining ground above 130.36 is required to open the 131.66 area. Only below 128.78 would question the near-term bullish outlook and expose the Nov. 27 reaction low.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Consolidation off Monday's 7-day high at 1.5130 has been contained at 1.5096 following Wednesday's strong recovery. The focus is back on the 1.5130 high, and a break through there would open 1.5135 and 1.5146. Below 1.5118 would suggest longer consolidation is required, and create scope for a return to the 1.5096 low.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: An 8-week head-and-shoulders top is forming on the daily chart, and pressure is building on the neckline at 0.8971. The 10-month bull support line at 0.9130 for this week has been breached, and a break below 0.9017 would expose the key 0.8971 neckline. Below there would expose the 0.8949/0.8909 reactions lows, and would highlight a longer-term target in the 0.8500 area. Regaining ground above 0.9177 would provide relief, opening 0.9216.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplu...VUORfG7w%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 10, 2009 02:23 ET (07:23 GMT)
среда, 9 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0603 GMT 1.4730 88.35 1.6269 1.0257
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 1.4340 93.17 1.6233 1.0607
3rd Resistance 1.4905 89.56 1.6474 1.0381
2nd Resistance 1.4890 89.17 1.6382 1.0338
1st Resistance 1.4800 88.70 1.6316 1.0292
Pivot* 1.4750 88.71 1.6339 1.0236
1st Support 1.4665 88.17 1.6155 1.0220
2nd Support 1.4626 87.80 1.6115 1.0165
3rd Support 1.4509 87.50 1.6023 1.0146
Intraday EUR/USD: The sharp down move extended below 1.4756 to confirm the break of a 9-month bull support line and bring the focus onto the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626. This level is also the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, and suggests a likely area in which to find significant support should the market break below 1.4665. Regaining ground above 1.4800 is required to lift the tone and open the 1.4890/1.4905 resistance area.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance following the push below 89.05. Below 88.17 would expose support at 87.93 and 87.80 (50% retracement), although former range highs in the 87.50 area will provide a sterner barrier for this corrective down move. Above 88.70 would build on the struggling recovery off Tuesday's low at 88.17, opening the 89.17 and 89.56 lower highs.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Suffers a sharp setback to extend the 2-3 week decline into fresh near-term lows below 1.6272. A lower high at 1.6721 has been confirmed, and room exists for a deeper setback towards the 1.6115 area. However, given the underlying weakness in the market, scope for the 1.6000 level cannot be ruled out. Corrective gains are limited, and only a sustained break above 1.6316 would lift the tone.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Forced a break into fresh 1-month highs above 1.0245 before undergoing a corrective setback off 1.0292. However, dips should be limited to the 1.0220 area, and while above there, bull momentum is strong enough to highlight the risk of further upside towards the Nov. 3 lower high at 1.0338.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0643 GMT 0.9075 129.71 1.5108 0.9044
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 0.8846 133.47 1.5178 0.8398
3rd Resistance 0.9153 132.83 1.5146 0.9175
2nd Resistance 0.9114 132.20 1.5130 0.9145
1st Resistance 0.9094 131.50 1.5120 0.9073
Pivot* 0.9051 130.77 1.5107 0.9075
1st Support 0.9020 128.99 1.5096 0.9020
2nd Support 0.8992 128.73 1.5092 0.8967
3rd Support 0.8950 126.93 1.5076 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) is threatening a break through 0.9094 to extend the move up to the 0.9114 lower high. Above there would open the Nov. 30 reaction high at 0.9153. Only failing to break 0.9094 would negate the bullish outlook and bring the focus back onto the 0.8992 low.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Sharply extends the setback from the Dec. 4 reaction high at 134.54 following the break below 132.39 Tuesday. This move is consolidating the strong advance off 126.93, and bulls will look to be contain dips above the 128.99/128.73 support area in order to protect the 126.93 low. Resistance lies at 131.50/132.20 intraday congestion area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Continues to consolidate off Monday's near-term high at 1.5130 as the market attempts to validate the break of a 1-year bear resistance line. A support cluster between 1.5092 and 1.5096 is underpinning the market, and while this area holds, room exists for renewed bull pressure towards 1.5120 and the 1.5130 high. Only below 1.5092 would negate the bullish outlook and expose a bull support line at 1.5076.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the weak tone following the break below 0.9054 to bring the focus back onto the Nov. 27 reaction low at 0.8949. Also under threat is the 10-month bull support line at 0.9032 for this week. A head-and-shoulders top can be seen on the daily chart, and a break below the neckline would suggest longer-term potential for the 0.8500 area. Above 0.9073 would provide temporary relief, although only regaining ground above the distance 0.9175 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=i0WaFmYnCENViVaRS%2BXrEQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2009 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT)
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0603 GMT 1.4730 88.35 1.6269 1.0257
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 1.4340 93.17 1.6233 1.0607
3rd Resistance 1.4905 89.56 1.6474 1.0381
2nd Resistance 1.4890 89.17 1.6382 1.0338
1st Resistance 1.4800 88.70 1.6316 1.0292
Pivot* 1.4750 88.71 1.6339 1.0236
1st Support 1.4665 88.17 1.6155 1.0220
2nd Support 1.4626 87.80 1.6115 1.0165
3rd Support 1.4509 87.50 1.6023 1.0146
Intraday EUR/USD: The sharp down move extended below 1.4756 to confirm the break of a 9-month bull support line and bring the focus onto the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626. This level is also the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, and suggests a likely area in which to find significant support should the market break below 1.4665. Regaining ground above 1.4800 is required to lift the tone and open the 1.4890/1.4905 resistance area.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance following the push below 89.05. Below 88.17 would expose support at 87.93 and 87.80 (50% retracement), although former range highs in the 87.50 area will provide a sterner barrier for this corrective down move. Above 88.70 would build on the struggling recovery off Tuesday's low at 88.17, opening the 89.17 and 89.56 lower highs.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Suffers a sharp setback to extend the 2-3 week decline into fresh near-term lows below 1.6272. A lower high at 1.6721 has been confirmed, and room exists for a deeper setback towards the 1.6115 area. However, given the underlying weakness in the market, scope for the 1.6000 level cannot be ruled out. Corrective gains are limited, and only a sustained break above 1.6316 would lift the tone.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Forced a break into fresh 1-month highs above 1.0245 before undergoing a corrective setback off 1.0292. However, dips should be limited to the 1.0220 area, and while above there, bull momentum is strong enough to highlight the risk of further upside towards the Nov. 3 lower high at 1.0338.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0643 GMT 0.9075 129.71 1.5108 0.9044
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 0.8846 133.47 1.5178 0.8398
3rd Resistance 0.9153 132.83 1.5146 0.9175
2nd Resistance 0.9114 132.20 1.5130 0.9145
1st Resistance 0.9094 131.50 1.5120 0.9073
Pivot* 0.9051 130.77 1.5107 0.9075
1st Support 0.9020 128.99 1.5096 0.9020
2nd Support 0.8992 128.73 1.5092 0.8967
3rd Support 0.8950 126.93 1.5076 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) is threatening a break through 0.9094 to extend the move up to the 0.9114 lower high. Above there would open the Nov. 30 reaction high at 0.9153. Only failing to break 0.9094 would negate the bullish outlook and bring the focus back onto the 0.8992 low.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Sharply extends the setback from the Dec. 4 reaction high at 134.54 following the break below 132.39 Tuesday. This move is consolidating the strong advance off 126.93, and bulls will look to be contain dips above the 128.99/128.73 support area in order to protect the 126.93 low. Resistance lies at 131.50/132.20 intraday congestion area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Continues to consolidate off Monday's near-term high at 1.5130 as the market attempts to validate the break of a 1-year bear resistance line. A support cluster between 1.5092 and 1.5096 is underpinning the market, and while this area holds, room exists for renewed bull pressure towards 1.5120 and the 1.5130 high. Only below 1.5092 would negate the bullish outlook and expose a bull support line at 1.5076.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the weak tone following the break below 0.9054 to bring the focus back onto the Nov. 27 reaction low at 0.8949. Also under threat is the 10-month bull support line at 0.9032 for this week. A head-and-shoulders top can be seen on the daily chart, and a break below the neckline would suggest longer-term potential for the 0.8500 area. Above 0.9073 would provide temporary relief, although only regaining ground above the distance 0.9175 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=i0WaFmYnCENViVaRS%2BXrEQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2009 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT)
вторник, 8 декабря 2009 г.
Торговый план GBPUSD. Анализ GBPUSD.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0559 GMT 1.4847 88.92 1.6450 1.0173
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Range Range
200 day ma 1.4336 93.21 1.6233 1.0611
3rd Resistance 1.4970 90.78 1.6620 1.0242
2nd Resistance 1.4949 90.11 1.6529 1.0222
1st Resistance 1.4906 89.56 1.6484 1.0210
Pivot* 1.4830 89.67 1.6426 1.0193
1st Support 1.4795 88.77 1.6316 1.0146
2nd Support 1.4756 88.48 1.6272 1.0136
3rd Support 1.4703 88.30 1.6233 1.0102
Intraday EUR/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 1.4756 to relieve the sharp decline off the Dec. 3 high at 1.5142. Regaining ground above 1.4906 is required to promote further corrective upside towards the 1.4949/1.4970 area, although gains look capped beneath the pivotal 1.5000 level at this stage. Below 1.4756 would put short-term bears in control and expose the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance following the push below 89.05. Initial support lies at the 88.48 support cluster, which should be strong enough to contain dips and protect the 50% retracement level at 87.80. Regaining ground above 89.56 is required to negate the bear threat and re-open the 90.11 lower high.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 1.6316 to protect the Nov. 27 reaction low at 1.6272. However, the failure to confirm a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern highlights the lack of bull momentum in this market, and only a break through 1.6484 would provide corrective relief, for 1.6529. While 1.6484 caps, risk of renewed bear pressure exists on the 1.6316 low, which would threaten a return to 1.6272. A deeper target lies at 1.6233, being 50% of a wide 4-month bull flag, ahead of a projected downside target at 1.6116.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Forced a break into fresh 1-month highs to 1.0242 before suffering a corrective setback. Loss of 1.0146 would expose support in the 1.0136/1.0140 area, although scope for the 50% retracement level of the entire 0.9960/1.0245 advance at 1.0102 cannot be ruled out. Above 1.0210 would lift the tone and threaten a return to the 1.0242 high.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0639 GMT 0.9040 132.09 1.5110 0.9120
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Range Range Bullish
200 day ma 0.8844 133.51 1.5179 0.8391
3rd Resistance 0.9153 133.53 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 132.85 1.5149 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9078 132.39 1.5130 0.9175
Pivot* 0.9029 133.15 1.5114 0.9123
1st Support 0.9010 131.72 1.5099 0.9054
2nd Support 0.8992 131.00 1.5086 0.9032
3rd Support 0.8980 130.65 1.5055 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) remains capped beneath projected resistance at 0.9078. While 0.9078 remains intact, room exists for renewed bear pressure on the key 0.8992/0.8980 area, and a break though there would deepen the corrective setback towards 0.8955 and 0.8910. Above 0.9078 would put bulls in near-term control and force a move higher to test the Dec. 3 lower high at 0.9114.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Continues to undergo consolidation off the Dec. 4 high at 134.54, correcting the powerful 123.93/134.54 advance. Below 131.72 would extend the setback towards the 131.00/130.74 area, the latter marking the 50% retracement level which coincides with congestion lows at 130.65. Resistance lies at the pivotal 132.85 area, and a break through there is required to open the 133.68/133.87 area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Forces a break through the 1-year bear resistance line at 1.5105 to reach 1.5130 Monday before undergoing consolidation. Support lies at former range highs at 1.5099 and 1.5086, and while these levels remain intact, room exists for renewed bull pressure on 1.5130, threatening further upside towards a projected target at 1.5149. Below 1.5086 is required to question the bullish outlook and expose the 1.5055 higher low.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 0.9054 to halt the down move from the Dec. 3 high at 0.9322. Bulls will be keen to keep this support area intact, which is backed-up by a 10-month bull trendline at 0.9032 for this week. A break above 0.9175 is required to further lift the tone, opening 0.9195 and 0.9216. Only below 0.9054 would give bears near-term control and threaten a sharper setback towards the Nov. 27 higher reaction low at 0.8949.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=NWd9cC2bmlSy8zOvR6gtAQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 08, 2009 02:44 ET (07:44 GMT)
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0559 GMT 1.4847 88.92 1.6450 1.0173
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Range Range
200 day ma 1.4336 93.21 1.6233 1.0611
3rd Resistance 1.4970 90.78 1.6620 1.0242
2nd Resistance 1.4949 90.11 1.6529 1.0222
1st Resistance 1.4906 89.56 1.6484 1.0210
Pivot* 1.4830 89.67 1.6426 1.0193
1st Support 1.4795 88.77 1.6316 1.0146
2nd Support 1.4756 88.48 1.6272 1.0136
3rd Support 1.4703 88.30 1.6233 1.0102
Intraday EUR/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 1.4756 to relieve the sharp decline off the Dec. 3 high at 1.5142. Regaining ground above 1.4906 is required to promote further corrective upside towards the 1.4949/1.4970 area, although gains look capped beneath the pivotal 1.5000 level at this stage. Below 1.4756 would put short-term bears in control and expose the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance following the push below 89.05. Initial support lies at the 88.48 support cluster, which should be strong enough to contain dips and protect the 50% retracement level at 87.80. Regaining ground above 89.56 is required to negate the bear threat and re-open the 90.11 lower high.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 1.6316 to protect the Nov. 27 reaction low at 1.6272. However, the failure to confirm a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern highlights the lack of bull momentum in this market, and only a break through 1.6484 would provide corrective relief, for 1.6529. While 1.6484 caps, risk of renewed bear pressure exists on the 1.6316 low, which would threaten a return to 1.6272. A deeper target lies at 1.6233, being 50% of a wide 4-month bull flag, ahead of a projected downside target at 1.6116.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Forced a break into fresh 1-month highs to 1.0242 before suffering a corrective setback. Loss of 1.0146 would expose support in the 1.0136/1.0140 area, although scope for the 50% retracement level of the entire 0.9960/1.0245 advance at 1.0102 cannot be ruled out. Above 1.0210 would lift the tone and threaten a return to the 1.0242 high.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0639 GMT 0.9040 132.09 1.5110 0.9120
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Range Range Bullish
200 day ma 0.8844 133.51 1.5179 0.8391
3rd Resistance 0.9153 133.53 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 132.85 1.5149 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9078 132.39 1.5130 0.9175
Pivot* 0.9029 133.15 1.5114 0.9123
1st Support 0.9010 131.72 1.5099 0.9054
2nd Support 0.8992 131.00 1.5086 0.9032
3rd Support 0.8980 130.65 1.5055 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) remains capped beneath projected resistance at 0.9078. While 0.9078 remains intact, room exists for renewed bear pressure on the key 0.8992/0.8980 area, and a break though there would deepen the corrective setback towards 0.8955 and 0.8910. Above 0.9078 would put bulls in near-term control and force a move higher to test the Dec. 3 lower high at 0.9114.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Continues to undergo consolidation off the Dec. 4 high at 134.54, correcting the powerful 123.93/134.54 advance. Below 131.72 would extend the setback towards the 131.00/130.74 area, the latter marking the 50% retracement level which coincides with congestion lows at 130.65. Resistance lies at the pivotal 132.85 area, and a break through there is required to open the 133.68/133.87 area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Forces a break through the 1-year bear resistance line at 1.5105 to reach 1.5130 Monday before undergoing consolidation. Support lies at former range highs at 1.5099 and 1.5086, and while these levels remain intact, room exists for renewed bull pressure on 1.5130, threatening further upside towards a projected target at 1.5149. Below 1.5086 is required to question the bullish outlook and expose the 1.5055 higher low.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 0.9054 to halt the down move from the Dec. 3 high at 0.9322. Bulls will be keen to keep this support area intact, which is backed-up by a 10-month bull trendline at 0.9032 for this week. A break above 0.9175 is required to further lift the tone, opening 0.9195 and 0.9216. Only below 0.9054 would give bears near-term control and threaten a sharper setback towards the Nov. 27 higher reaction low at 0.8949.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=NWd9cC2bmlSy8zOvR6gtAQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 08, 2009 02:44 ET (07:44 GMT)
понедельник, 7 декабря 2009 г.
Торговый план GBPUSD. Анализ GBPUSD.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0613 GMT 1.4900 89.94 1.6510 1.0140
3 Day Trend Range Bullish Range Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Range Range
200 day ma 1.4331 93.25 1.6230 1.0615
3rd Resistance 1.5036 91.34 1.6721 1.0212
2nd Resistance 1.5000 90.78 1.6674 1.0200
1st Resistance 1.4981 90.38 1.6570 1.0192
Pivot* 1.4924 89.78 1.6524 1.0113
1st Support 1.4850 89.50 1.6425 1.0103
2nd Support 1.4821 88.50 1.6380 1.0076
3rd Support 1.4800 88.30 1.6272 1.0049
Intraday EUR/USD: Last week's rejection of the 2009 high at 1.5145 prompted a setback to 1.4821, testing a 9-month bull support line. There is room for a recovery to the 1.4981/1.5000 area, although regaining ground above 1.5080 is required to bring the focus back onto the 1.5145 high. Given the severity and sustainability of the decline off 1.5080, upside looks limited at this stage. Below 1.4821 would extend the setback and prompt further weakness towards 1.4800 and the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Pushed strongly higher to shake off a bear wedge formation on the daily chart, and extend the recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 84.82. Resistance has emerged at 90.78 to consolidate the move, and support at 89.50 and former range highs around 88.50 is likely to come under threat. However, only a sustained break below 88.30 would suggest a significant high has been set at 90.78, in line with the dominant bearish longer-trend. Above 90.38 would bring the focus back onto the 90.78 high.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: The setback off 1.6721 touched 1.6425 before staging a recovery. An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern can be discerned on the daily chart, and keeping 1.6425 intact, combined with a break through 1.6570 would lift the tone sharply towards the 1.6674 lower high. The neckline lies at 1.6713 for Monday. Below 1.6425 would place doubts on the bullish pattern, exposing 1.6380 and the Nov. 27 reaction low at 1.6272.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Pushed sharply higher back above the pivotal 1.0033 level following the rejection off the Dec. 3 marginal low at 0.9960. Above 1.0192 would bring a 2-month bear resistance line at 1.0212 within striking distance, which has defined a descending triangle since the beginning of October. Corrective dips have room for the 1.0076/1.0086 support area, although only below 1.0033 would suggest a return to the 0.9980 higher low.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0647 GMT 0.9029 133.93 1.5105 0.9159
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8842 133.51 1.5180 0.8384
3rd Resistance 0.9153 135.76 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 135.40 1.5135 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9078 134.54 1.5113 0.9187
Pivot* 0.9041 133.72 1.5088 0.9183
1st Support 0.8992 132.50 1.5100 0.9110
2nd Support 0.8980 131.99 1.5084 0.9032
3rd Support 0.8955 131.00 1.5075 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: Retraced 50% of the 0.8835/0.9153 recovery to touch 0.8992 before staging a recovery. This key support cluster area extends to 0.8980 and should provide a short-term base from which to test 0.9078, despite last week's bearish higher high, lower close candle. Above 0.9078 would strengthen the 0.8992 low and bring the focus back onto the Dec. 3 lower high at 0.9114. Only below 0.8992/0.8980 would prompt further weakness towards 0.8955 and 0.8910.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Maintains the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93 to retrace over 61.8% of the dominant downmove off 138.49. Resistance has emerged at 134.54 to prompt a corrective setback, but the swift rejection of the move to 126.93 suggests a false downside break. Initial support lies at 132.50, although dips should be contained above the 130.74/131.00 support area. Above 134.54 would extend the recovery towards the Nov. 4 lower high at 135.76.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Stages a strong recovery off Friday's near-term low at 1.5055 to force a break above 1.5100. The 1-year bear resistance line at 1.5105 for this week has been breached, and a break through 1.5113 would bring the recent spike high at 1.5135 into focus. Support lies at former range highs around 1.5100, although corrective dips should be contained above 1.5084.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the setback off the Dec. 3 high at 0.9322 following the break below 0.9216. Support has emerged at 0.9110, although regaining ground above 0.9187 is required to lift the tone and bring the focus back to the upside, opening 0.9216 and the 0.9293 lower high on concerted strength. Loss of 0.9110 would put near-term bears in control and expose 10-month bull trendline support at 0.9032 for the week.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=aNhQ3oF%2FDOMqeVRgUS1Nzg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 07, 2009 02:53 ET (07:53 GMT)
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0613 GMT 1.4900 89.94 1.6510 1.0140
3 Day Trend Range Bullish Range Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Range Range
200 day ma 1.4331 93.25 1.6230 1.0615
3rd Resistance 1.5036 91.34 1.6721 1.0212
2nd Resistance 1.5000 90.78 1.6674 1.0200
1st Resistance 1.4981 90.38 1.6570 1.0192
Pivot* 1.4924 89.78 1.6524 1.0113
1st Support 1.4850 89.50 1.6425 1.0103
2nd Support 1.4821 88.50 1.6380 1.0076
3rd Support 1.4800 88.30 1.6272 1.0049
Intraday EUR/USD: Last week's rejection of the 2009 high at 1.5145 prompted a setback to 1.4821, testing a 9-month bull support line. There is room for a recovery to the 1.4981/1.5000 area, although regaining ground above 1.5080 is required to bring the focus back onto the 1.5145 high. Given the severity and sustainability of the decline off 1.5080, upside looks limited at this stage. Below 1.4821 would extend the setback and prompt further weakness towards 1.4800 and the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Pushed strongly higher to shake off a bear wedge formation on the daily chart, and extend the recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 84.82. Resistance has emerged at 90.78 to consolidate the move, and support at 89.50 and former range highs around 88.50 is likely to come under threat. However, only a sustained break below 88.30 would suggest a significant high has been set at 90.78, in line with the dominant bearish longer-trend. Above 90.38 would bring the focus back onto the 90.78 high.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: The setback off 1.6721 touched 1.6425 before staging a recovery. An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern can be discerned on the daily chart, and keeping 1.6425 intact, combined with a break through 1.6570 would lift the tone sharply towards the 1.6674 lower high. The neckline lies at 1.6713 for Monday. Below 1.6425 would place doubts on the bullish pattern, exposing 1.6380 and the Nov. 27 reaction low at 1.6272.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Pushed sharply higher back above the pivotal 1.0033 level following the rejection off the Dec. 3 marginal low at 0.9960. Above 1.0192 would bring a 2-month bear resistance line at 1.0212 within striking distance, which has defined a descending triangle since the beginning of October. Corrective dips have room for the 1.0076/1.0086 support area, although only below 1.0033 would suggest a return to the 0.9980 higher low.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0647 GMT 0.9029 133.93 1.5105 0.9159
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8842 133.51 1.5180 0.8384
3rd Resistance 0.9153 135.76 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 135.40 1.5135 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9078 134.54 1.5113 0.9187
Pivot* 0.9041 133.72 1.5088 0.9183
1st Support 0.8992 132.50 1.5100 0.9110
2nd Support 0.8980 131.99 1.5084 0.9032
3rd Support 0.8955 131.00 1.5075 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: Retraced 50% of the 0.8835/0.9153 recovery to touch 0.8992 before staging a recovery. This key support cluster area extends to 0.8980 and should provide a short-term base from which to test 0.9078, despite last week's bearish higher high, lower close candle. Above 0.9078 would strengthen the 0.8992 low and bring the focus back onto the Dec. 3 lower high at 0.9114. Only below 0.8992/0.8980 would prompt further weakness towards 0.8955 and 0.8910.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Maintains the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93 to retrace over 61.8% of the dominant downmove off 138.49. Resistance has emerged at 134.54 to prompt a corrective setback, but the swift rejection of the move to 126.93 suggests a false downside break. Initial support lies at 132.50, although dips should be contained above the 130.74/131.00 support area. Above 134.54 would extend the recovery towards the Nov. 4 lower high at 135.76.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Stages a strong recovery off Friday's near-term low at 1.5055 to force a break above 1.5100. The 1-year bear resistance line at 1.5105 for this week has been breached, and a break through 1.5113 would bring the recent spike high at 1.5135 into focus. Support lies at former range highs around 1.5100, although corrective dips should be contained above 1.5084.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the setback off the Dec. 3 high at 0.9322 following the break below 0.9216. Support has emerged at 0.9110, although regaining ground above 0.9187 is required to lift the tone and bring the focus back to the upside, opening 0.9216 and the 0.9293 lower high on concerted strength. Loss of 0.9110 would put near-term bears in control and expose 10-month bull trendline support at 0.9032 for the week.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=aNhQ3oF%2FDOMqeVRgUS1Nzg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 07, 2009 02:53 ET (07:53 GMT)
пятница, 4 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNLONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF Spot 0648 GMT 1.5067 88.22 1.6556 1.0003 3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bearish 200 day ma 1.4326 93.28 1.6228 1.0620 3rd Resistance 1.5164 89.55 1.6721 1.0075 2nd Resistance 1.5142 88.85 1.6669 1.0043 1st Resistance 1.5102 88.48 1.6614 1.0027 Pivot* 1.5079 88.04 1.6597 0.9991 1st Support 1.5027 88.00 1.6462 0.9979 2nd Support 1.4970 87.54 1.6444 0.9960 3rd Support 1.4947 86.98 1.6380 0.9916Intraday EUR/USD: Falters just shy of the 2009 high at 1.5145 following the cap at 1.5142 Thursday. Dips need to be kept above 1.5027 in order to prevent leaving 1.5142 as a bull failure, so while 1.5027 remains intact, there is room for upside pressure on the 1.5097/1.5102 lower intraday highs. Below 1.5027 would indicate the need for a deeper retracement of the 1.4827/1.5142 recovery, exposing 1.4970 and potential for 1.4901.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The push above 87.55 Wednesday extends consolidation of the dominant bear trend and retraces the down move off the 91.34 lower high. However, this recovery can still be placed within a bear flag, and corrective gains will find resistance at former range lows at 88.75. The 61.8% retracement level lies at 88.85, adding weight to this resistance area which protects 89.55. Downside risk is still the greater threat, and a break below 87.54 would promote room for further weakness towards 86.98.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Suffers a sharp setback off 1.6721 Thursday as resistance protects the 1.6745 lower high. Dips will look to test the 1.6462/1.6444 support area (the latter is 61.85 retracement of the 1.6272/1.6721 recovery), and keeping this area intact would potentially realize an inverse head-and-shoulders continuation pattern on the daily chart. Above 1.6614 would lit the tone, although a break above 1.6669 is required to bring the focus back onto the 1.6721 high.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Continues to drift lower, although downside momentum has waned. The recovery off Thursday's low at 0.9960 needs to regain ground above 1.0043 in order to label 0.9960 as a bear failure, promoting room for further gains towards the 1.0075 lower high. However, while below 1.0043, risk of bear pressure on 0.9960 is still a threat, exposing the Nov. 26 reaction low at 0.9916 on concerted weakness.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
second table Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD Spot 0656 GMT 0.9050 132.60 1.5078 0.9310 3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Range Bullish Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish 200 day ma 0.8841 133.51 1.5181 0.8376 3rd Resistance 0.9192 134.22 1.5110 0.9376 2nd Resistance 0.9153 134.00 1.5100 0.9322 1st Resistance 0.9124 133.56 1.5092 0.9284 Pivot* 0.9060 131.37 1.5074 0.9258 1st Support 0.9055 132.50 1.5061 0.9216 2nd Support 0.9028 131.99 1.5040 0.9178 3rd Support 0.8995 131.00 1.5012 0.9134Intraday EUR/GBP: Retraced 38.2% of the 0.8835/0.9153 at 0.9028 before staging a good recovery. The prior bear threat should have been much worse, but the failure to even test the significant support cluster in the 0.8995/0.8980 area highlights the lack of bear power. Resistance at 0.9124 is under threat, and a break through there would re-open the week's high at 0.9153, ahead of the 0.9192 area. Only below 0.9028 would defer the bullish outlook.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: The strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93 reached 133.56 Wednesday before suffering a corrective setback. Keeping dips to 132.50 would bring the focus back onto the 133.56 high, and prompt further strength to the 134.22 area (1.618 Fibonacci extension). Loss of 132.50 would deepen the corrective setback towards the 131.00 area (38.2% retracement of the 126.93/133.56 recovery).
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Drifts lower beneath a 1-week bull support line around 1.5075. The range ceiling remains intact at 1.5100, and while the 1.5092 lower high caps, room exists for further drifting below 1.5061 towards the Nov. 26 low at 1.5040. Only above 1.5092 and 1.5100 would negate the bearish outlook and open 1.5110.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Suffered a setback off Wednesday's high at 0.9322 as the market undergoes consolidation of the recovery off 0.8949. However, dips are corrective and should find support in the 0.9194/0.9178 area. Regaining ground above 0.9284 would bring the focus back onto the 0.9322 high, opening 0.9376 and the 2009 high at 0.9404 set on Nov. 16. Below 0.9178 would deepen the corrective setback and expose the 0.9108 higher low.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=QeXZ3mqtebqJ2o6mFIzo6w%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 04, 2009 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT)
четверг, 3 декабря 2009 г.
среда, 2 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0624 GMT 1.5089 87.03 1.6593 0.9989
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bearish
200 day ma 1.4311 93.39 1.6221 1.0632
3rd Resistance 1.5164 88.63 1.6745 1.0141
2nd Resistance 1.5145 87.75 1.6696 1.0075
1st Resistance 1.5118 87.54 1.6642 1.0017
Pivot* 1.5056 86.80 1.6551 1.0013
1st Support 1.5041 86.52 1.6530 0.9970
2nd Support 1.5003 85.86 1.6459 0.9916
3rd Support 1.4970 84.82 1.6380 0.9892
Intraday EUR/USD: Retains the bullish tone following Tuesday's bear trap low a 1.4970. The push above 1.5085 now threatens further gains towards the 2009 high at 1.5145 that was set on Nov. 25, with potential for 1.5164 and 1.5228 on a concerted show of strength. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.5003, and only below there would question the bullish outlook and expose the 1.4970 low.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The recovery off the Nov. 26 14-year low at 84.82 is sluggish and taking the form of a bear wedge. Corrective upside looks limited to the 87.75 area, and the greater risk lies to the downside at this stage. Below Tuesday's intraday low at 86.52 would complete the bear wedge and bring the focus back down to the 85.86 lower high, and threatening a return to the 84.82 reaction low. A break through the 87.54/87.75 resistance area would require a sustained wave of bull pressure to question the overall bearish outlook, opening 88.63.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Extends the recovery off the Nov. 27 low at 1.6272 to force a break through 1.6588. Above 1.6646 is required to further lift the pairing out of the doldrums and open an equality target at 1.6698, and bring the Nov. 25 lower high at 1.6745 into focus. Only a break below 1.6530 would question the bullish outlook and expose Monday's higher low at 1.6380.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Continues to drift lower following the sharp cap at 1.0176 on Nov. 25. A lower high at 1.0075 promotes room for further weakness towards the Nov. 26 reaction low at 0.9916, which would confirm the dominant descending triangle on the daily chart. A projected target below 0.9916 lies at 0.9892. Above 1.0075 is required to question the bearish outlook and open 1.0141.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0655 GMT 0.9092 131.53 1.5075 0.9269
3 Day Trend Range Bullish Range Bullish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8836 133.53 1.5183 0.8358
3rd Resistance 0.9132 132.70 1.5135 0.9352
2nd Resistance 0.9087 132.22 1.5115 0.9323
1st Resistance 0.9063 131.76 1.5100 0.9284
Pivot* 0.9099 130.47 1.5081 0.9209
1st Support 0.8986 131.15 1.5067 0.9194
2nd Support 0.8949 130.57 1.5040 0.9108
3rd Support 0.8903 130.00 1.5012 0.9054
Intraday EUR/GBP: Consolidates the solid recovery off the Nov. 17 reaction low following Monday's sharp setback off 0.9153, which is 50% retracement of the larger 0.9412/0.8835 decline. However, only a break below the 0.9060 area would deepen the setback and bring the 0.8994/0.8980 area into focus. Regaining ground above 0.9121 and 0.9132 is required to threaten a return to the 0.9153 high.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Extends the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93 to force a break above 131.00. The pairing has regained ground within the symmetrical triangle pattern that originates back in April, and projections from Monday's higher low at 128.99 highlight the 132.22 area. Intraday congestion between 131.15 and 130.57 provides initial support, ahead of support in the 130.00 area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Remains beneath the range ceiling at 1.5100 as the bear trendline originating from the December 2008 reaction high at 1.5880 continues to dominate the tone. An intraday bull support line at 1.5067 is under threat, and a break through there would bring the focus back onto the range floor at 1.5040, which protects the recent Nov. 26 low at 1.5012.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Completed a corrective bull flag before moving sharply higher above 0.9194 to extend the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 0.8949. This keeps a 9-month bull support line intact, and a break through 0.9284 would bring the focus back onto the Nov. 25 lower high at 0.9323. An equality target lies at 0.9352. The bull flag congestion area between 0.9194 and 0.9108 should contain corrective dips, and only below there would concern bulls.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=goCT2Ngn2K1zteb%2FKszeag%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 02, 2009 03:00 ET (08:00 GMT)
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0624 GMT 1.5089 87.03 1.6593 0.9989
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bearish
200 day ma 1.4311 93.39 1.6221 1.0632
3rd Resistance 1.5164 88.63 1.6745 1.0141
2nd Resistance 1.5145 87.75 1.6696 1.0075
1st Resistance 1.5118 87.54 1.6642 1.0017
Pivot* 1.5056 86.80 1.6551 1.0013
1st Support 1.5041 86.52 1.6530 0.9970
2nd Support 1.5003 85.86 1.6459 0.9916
3rd Support 1.4970 84.82 1.6380 0.9892
Intraday EUR/USD: Retains the bullish tone following Tuesday's bear trap low a 1.4970. The push above 1.5085 now threatens further gains towards the 2009 high at 1.5145 that was set on Nov. 25, with potential for 1.5164 and 1.5228 on a concerted show of strength. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.5003, and only below there would question the bullish outlook and expose the 1.4970 low.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The recovery off the Nov. 26 14-year low at 84.82 is sluggish and taking the form of a bear wedge. Corrective upside looks limited to the 87.75 area, and the greater risk lies to the downside at this stage. Below Tuesday's intraday low at 86.52 would complete the bear wedge and bring the focus back down to the 85.86 lower high, and threatening a return to the 84.82 reaction low. A break through the 87.54/87.75 resistance area would require a sustained wave of bull pressure to question the overall bearish outlook, opening 88.63.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Extends the recovery off the Nov. 27 low at 1.6272 to force a break through 1.6588. Above 1.6646 is required to further lift the pairing out of the doldrums and open an equality target at 1.6698, and bring the Nov. 25 lower high at 1.6745 into focus. Only a break below 1.6530 would question the bullish outlook and expose Monday's higher low at 1.6380.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Continues to drift lower following the sharp cap at 1.0176 on Nov. 25. A lower high at 1.0075 promotes room for further weakness towards the Nov. 26 reaction low at 0.9916, which would confirm the dominant descending triangle on the daily chart. A projected target below 0.9916 lies at 0.9892. Above 1.0075 is required to question the bearish outlook and open 1.0141.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0655 GMT 0.9092 131.53 1.5075 0.9269
3 Day Trend Range Bullish Range Bullish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8836 133.53 1.5183 0.8358
3rd Resistance 0.9132 132.70 1.5135 0.9352
2nd Resistance 0.9087 132.22 1.5115 0.9323
1st Resistance 0.9063 131.76 1.5100 0.9284
Pivot* 0.9099 130.47 1.5081 0.9209
1st Support 0.8986 131.15 1.5067 0.9194
2nd Support 0.8949 130.57 1.5040 0.9108
3rd Support 0.8903 130.00 1.5012 0.9054
Intraday EUR/GBP: Consolidates the solid recovery off the Nov. 17 reaction low following Monday's sharp setback off 0.9153, which is 50% retracement of the larger 0.9412/0.8835 decline. However, only a break below the 0.9060 area would deepen the setback and bring the 0.8994/0.8980 area into focus. Regaining ground above 0.9121 and 0.9132 is required to threaten a return to the 0.9153 high.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Extends the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93 to force a break above 131.00. The pairing has regained ground within the symmetrical triangle pattern that originates back in April, and projections from Monday's higher low at 128.99 highlight the 132.22 area. Intraday congestion between 131.15 and 130.57 provides initial support, ahead of support in the 130.00 area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Remains beneath the range ceiling at 1.5100 as the bear trendline originating from the December 2008 reaction high at 1.5880 continues to dominate the tone. An intraday bull support line at 1.5067 is under threat, and a break through there would bring the focus back onto the range floor at 1.5040, which protects the recent Nov. 26 low at 1.5012.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Completed a corrective bull flag before moving sharply higher above 0.9194 to extend the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 0.8949. This keeps a 9-month bull support line intact, and a break through 0.9284 would bring the focus back onto the Nov. 25 lower high at 0.9323. An equality target lies at 0.9352. The bull flag congestion area between 0.9194 and 0.9108 should contain corrective dips, and only below there would concern bulls.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=goCT2Ngn2K1zteb%2FKszeag%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 02, 2009 03:00 ET (08:00 GMT)
вторник, 1 декабря 2009 г.
Уровни Акселя. Теханализ европейских валютных рынков.
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF Spot 0605 GMT 1.4999 87.38 1.6421 1.0054 3 Day Trend Range Bearish Bearish Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Range 200 day ma 1.5145 93.46 1.6217 1.0639 3rd Resistance 1.5085 88.57 1.6644 1.0176 2nd Resistance 1.5041 87.86 1.6590 1.0141 1st Resistance 1.4991 87.54 1.6538 1.0080 Pivot* 1.5018 86.57 1.6470 1.0040 1st Support 1.4970 86.03 1.6380 0.9993 2nd Support 1.4926 85.86 1.6347 0.9916 3rd Support 1.4869 84.82 1.6272 0.9900 Intraday EUR/USD: Volatility remains present following the strong recovery off last Friday's low at 1.4827. Euro bulls were capped at 1.5085 to protect the 2009 high set on Nov. 25, and keeping 1.4970 intact would re-open the 1.5041 lower high which shields 1.5085. Below 1.4970 would put near-term bears in control for deeper consolidation towards the 1.4926 area.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Builds on the recovery off the Nov. 25 14-year low at 84.82, following the breach of 87.45. This confirms an intraday higher low at 85.86 and calls for further gains towards 87.86 and 88.57 (the latter is 50% retracement of the dominant 92.33/84.82 decline). However, the hurdle at 87.54 needs to be cleared first before feeling bullish about this pairing, which is in a strong longer-term downtrend. Below 85.86 would confirm a bull failure at 87.54 and bring the focus back onto the 84.82 reaction low.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Consolidates the 1.6272/1.6590 advance to keep the retracement limited to 50% of the 1.6877/1.6272 decline. Sterling bulls will be keen to keep the 1.6347 area intact to protect the 1.6272, as a break below there would put near-term bears in control and expose room for sharper weakness towards 1.6119. A break through 1.6590 is required to lift the mood and open the Nov. 25 lower high at 1.6745.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Suffers a setback off last Friday's high at 1.0176 to consolidate the strong recovery off the 2009 low at 0.9916, set on Nov. 26. However, Monday's low at 0.9993 is likely to come under threat, and a break through there would bring the focus back onto the 0.9916 low. Above 1.0080 is required to lift the tone and re-open the 1.0141 lower high.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD Spot 0711 GMT 0.9143 130.60 1.5075 0.9141 3 Day Trend Bullish Range Range Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bullish 200 day ma 0.8834 133.56 1.5184 0.8349 3rd Resistance 0.9201 132.23 1.5117 0.9248 2nd Resistance 0.9192 131.76 1.5100 0.9194 1st Resistance 0.9153 131.28 1.5090 0.9181 Pivot* 0.9116 129.84 1.5074 0.9152 1st Support 0.9084 129.84 1.5060 0.9108 2nd Support 0.9060 129.00 1.5047 0.9072 3rd Support 0.9044 127.65 1.5040 0.9000 Intraday EUR/GBP: Maintains the strong recovery off the Nov. 25 higher low at 0.8980 to force a break into fresh near-term highs above 0.9133. The focus is back on Monday's high at 0.9153, and a break through there would open the solid 0.9192/0.9201 resistance cluster, protecting the Oct. 26 lower high at 0.9239. Downside risk is limited at this stage, with 0.9084 and 0.9060 likely to contain corrective dips.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Extends the strong recovery off last Friday's low at 126.93 to probe above 131.00 and confirm a higher low at 129.00. However, a sustained break through 131.00 is required to promote room above the cap at 131.28, for potential to the 133.00 area. While 131.28 caps, a break below 129.00 would put near-term bears in control and bring the focus back to the downside, exposing 127.65.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Volatility has dissipated as the pairing undergoes consolidation of the 1.5012/1.5135 recovery. The market is back within a 1.5040/1.5100 range, and trading within a large intraday symmetrical triangle. The upper boundary, now at 1.5092, has foiled a recent attempt to break out this triangle, and suggests the lower boundary is now the target around 1.5060. Longer-term, a downside break is favoured to retest the Nov. 26 low at 1.5012.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Undergoes flag-like consolidation of the recovery off last Friday's low at 0.8949, which keeps a 9-month bull support line intact. Corrective dips should be limited to the 0.9072 area (50% retracement of the 0.8949/0.9194 advance) before renewing pressure on the 0.9194 high, and a break through there would prompt further gains towards the Nov. 25 lower high at 0.9323. Below 0.9072 would deepen consolidation towards the 0.9000 area.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplu...WdEZGNqQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 01, 2009 03:03 ET (08:03 GMT)
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF Spot 0605 GMT 1.4999 87.38 1.6421 1.0054 3 Day Trend Range Bearish Bearish Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Range 200 day ma 1.5145 93.46 1.6217 1.0639 3rd Resistance 1.5085 88.57 1.6644 1.0176 2nd Resistance 1.5041 87.86 1.6590 1.0141 1st Resistance 1.4991 87.54 1.6538 1.0080 Pivot* 1.5018 86.57 1.6470 1.0040 1st Support 1.4970 86.03 1.6380 0.9993 2nd Support 1.4926 85.86 1.6347 0.9916 3rd Support 1.4869 84.82 1.6272 0.9900 Intraday EUR/USD: Volatility remains present following the strong recovery off last Friday's low at 1.4827. Euro bulls were capped at 1.5085 to protect the 2009 high set on Nov. 25, and keeping 1.4970 intact would re-open the 1.5041 lower high which shields 1.5085. Below 1.4970 would put near-term bears in control for deeper consolidation towards the 1.4926 area.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Builds on the recovery off the Nov. 25 14-year low at 84.82, following the breach of 87.45. This confirms an intraday higher low at 85.86 and calls for further gains towards 87.86 and 88.57 (the latter is 50% retracement of the dominant 92.33/84.82 decline). However, the hurdle at 87.54 needs to be cleared first before feeling bullish about this pairing, which is in a strong longer-term downtrend. Below 85.86 would confirm a bull failure at 87.54 and bring the focus back onto the 84.82 reaction low.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Consolidates the 1.6272/1.6590 advance to keep the retracement limited to 50% of the 1.6877/1.6272 decline. Sterling bulls will be keen to keep the 1.6347 area intact to protect the 1.6272, as a break below there would put near-term bears in control and expose room for sharper weakness towards 1.6119. A break through 1.6590 is required to lift the mood and open the Nov. 25 lower high at 1.6745.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Suffers a setback off last Friday's high at 1.0176 to consolidate the strong recovery off the 2009 low at 0.9916, set on Nov. 26. However, Monday's low at 0.9993 is likely to come under threat, and a break through there would bring the focus back onto the 0.9916 low. Above 1.0080 is required to lift the tone and re-open the 1.0141 lower high.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD Spot 0711 GMT 0.9143 130.60 1.5075 0.9141 3 Day Trend Bullish Range Range Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bullish 200 day ma 0.8834 133.56 1.5184 0.8349 3rd Resistance 0.9201 132.23 1.5117 0.9248 2nd Resistance 0.9192 131.76 1.5100 0.9194 1st Resistance 0.9153 131.28 1.5090 0.9181 Pivot* 0.9116 129.84 1.5074 0.9152 1st Support 0.9084 129.84 1.5060 0.9108 2nd Support 0.9060 129.00 1.5047 0.9072 3rd Support 0.9044 127.65 1.5040 0.9000 Intraday EUR/GBP: Maintains the strong recovery off the Nov. 25 higher low at 0.8980 to force a break into fresh near-term highs above 0.9133. The focus is back on Monday's high at 0.9153, and a break through there would open the solid 0.9192/0.9201 resistance cluster, protecting the Oct. 26 lower high at 0.9239. Downside risk is limited at this stage, with 0.9084 and 0.9060 likely to contain corrective dips.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Extends the strong recovery off last Friday's low at 126.93 to probe above 131.00 and confirm a higher low at 129.00. However, a sustained break through 131.00 is required to promote room above the cap at 131.28, for potential to the 133.00 area. While 131.28 caps, a break below 129.00 would put near-term bears in control and bring the focus back to the downside, exposing 127.65.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Volatility has dissipated as the pairing undergoes consolidation of the 1.5012/1.5135 recovery. The market is back within a 1.5040/1.5100 range, and trading within a large intraday symmetrical triangle. The upper boundary, now at 1.5092, has foiled a recent attempt to break out this triangle, and suggests the lower boundary is now the target around 1.5060. Longer-term, a downside break is favoured to retest the Nov. 26 low at 1.5012.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Undergoes flag-like consolidation of the recovery off last Friday's low at 0.8949, which keeps a 9-month bull support line intact. Corrective dips should be limited to the 0.9072 area (50% retracement of the 0.8949/0.9194 advance) before renewing pressure on the 0.9194 high, and a break through there would prompt further gains towards the Nov. 25 lower high at 0.9323. Below 0.9072 would deepen consolidation towards the 0.9000 area.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkBackEurope@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplu...WdEZGNqQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 01, 2009 03:03 ET (08:03 GMT)
Подписаться на:
Сообщения (Atom)
