By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0603 GMT 1.4730 88.35 1.6269 1.0257
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 1.4340 93.17 1.6233 1.0607
3rd Resistance 1.4905 89.56 1.6474 1.0381
2nd Resistance 1.4890 89.17 1.6382 1.0338
1st Resistance 1.4800 88.70 1.6316 1.0292
Pivot* 1.4750 88.71 1.6339 1.0236
1st Support 1.4665 88.17 1.6155 1.0220
2nd Support 1.4626 87.80 1.6115 1.0165
3rd Support 1.4509 87.50 1.6023 1.0146
Intraday EUR/USD: The sharp down move extended below 1.4756 to confirm the break of a 9-month bull support line and bring the focus onto the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626. This level is also the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, and suggests a likely area in which to find significant support should the market break below 1.4665. Regaining ground above 1.4800 is required to lift the tone and open the 1.4890/1.4905 resistance area.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance following the push below 89.05. Below 88.17 would expose support at 87.93 and 87.80 (50% retracement), although former range highs in the 87.50 area will provide a sterner barrier for this corrective down move. Above 88.70 would build on the struggling recovery off Tuesday's low at 88.17, opening the 89.17 and 89.56 lower highs.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Suffers a sharp setback to extend the 2-3 week decline into fresh near-term lows below 1.6272. A lower high at 1.6721 has been confirmed, and room exists for a deeper setback towards the 1.6115 area. However, given the underlying weakness in the market, scope for the 1.6000 level cannot be ruled out. Corrective gains are limited, and only a sustained break above 1.6316 would lift the tone.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Forced a break into fresh 1-month highs above 1.0245 before undergoing a corrective setback off 1.0292. However, dips should be limited to the 1.0220 area, and while above there, bull momentum is strong enough to highlight the risk of further upside towards the Nov. 3 lower high at 1.0338.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0643 GMT 0.9075 129.71 1.5108 0.9044
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 0.8846 133.47 1.5178 0.8398
3rd Resistance 0.9153 132.83 1.5146 0.9175
2nd Resistance 0.9114 132.20 1.5130 0.9145
1st Resistance 0.9094 131.50 1.5120 0.9073
Pivot* 0.9051 130.77 1.5107 0.9075
1st Support 0.9020 128.99 1.5096 0.9020
2nd Support 0.8992 128.73 1.5092 0.8967
3rd Support 0.8950 126.93 1.5076 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) is threatening a break through 0.9094 to extend the move up to the 0.9114 lower high. Above there would open the Nov. 30 reaction high at 0.9153. Only failing to break 0.9094 would negate the bullish outlook and bring the focus back onto the 0.8992 low.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Sharply extends the setback from the Dec. 4 reaction high at 134.54 following the break below 132.39 Tuesday. This move is consolidating the strong advance off 126.93, and bulls will look to be contain dips above the 128.99/128.73 support area in order to protect the 126.93 low. Resistance lies at 131.50/132.20 intraday congestion area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Continues to consolidate off Monday's near-term high at 1.5130 as the market attempts to validate the break of a 1-year bear resistance line. A support cluster between 1.5092 and 1.5096 is underpinning the market, and while this area holds, room exists for renewed bull pressure towards 1.5120 and the 1.5130 high. Only below 1.5092 would negate the bullish outlook and expose a bull support line at 1.5076.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the weak tone following the break below 0.9054 to bring the focus back onto the Nov. 27 reaction low at 0.8949. Also under threat is the 10-month bull support line at 0.9032 for this week. A head-and-shoulders top can be seen on the daily chart, and a break below the neckline would suggest longer-term potential for the 0.8500 area. Above 0.9073 would provide temporary relief, although only regaining ground above the distance 0.9175 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2009 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT)
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