By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0624 GMT 1.5089 87.03 1.6593 0.9989
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bearish
200 day ma 1.4311 93.39 1.6221 1.0632
3rd Resistance 1.5164 88.63 1.6745 1.0141
2nd Resistance 1.5145 87.75 1.6696 1.0075
1st Resistance 1.5118 87.54 1.6642 1.0017
Pivot* 1.5056 86.80 1.6551 1.0013
1st Support 1.5041 86.52 1.6530 0.9970
2nd Support 1.5003 85.86 1.6459 0.9916
3rd Support 1.4970 84.82 1.6380 0.9892
Intraday EUR/USD: Retains the bullish tone following Tuesday's bear trap low a 1.4970. The push above 1.5085 now threatens further gains towards the 2009 high at 1.5145 that was set on Nov. 25, with potential for 1.5164 and 1.5228 on a concerted show of strength. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.5003, and only below there would question the bullish outlook and expose the 1.4970 low.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The recovery off the Nov. 26 14-year low at 84.82 is sluggish and taking the form of a bear wedge. Corrective upside looks limited to the 87.75 area, and the greater risk lies to the downside at this stage. Below Tuesday's intraday low at 86.52 would complete the bear wedge and bring the focus back down to the 85.86 lower high, and threatening a return to the 84.82 reaction low. A break through the 87.54/87.75 resistance area would require a sustained wave of bull pressure to question the overall bearish outlook, opening 88.63.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Extends the recovery off the Nov. 27 low at 1.6272 to force a break through 1.6588. Above 1.6646 is required to further lift the pairing out of the doldrums and open an equality target at 1.6698, and bring the Nov. 25 lower high at 1.6745 into focus. Only a break below 1.6530 would question the bullish outlook and expose Monday's higher low at 1.6380.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Continues to drift lower following the sharp cap at 1.0176 on Nov. 25. A lower high at 1.0075 promotes room for further weakness towards the Nov. 26 reaction low at 0.9916, which would confirm the dominant descending triangle on the daily chart. A projected target below 0.9916 lies at 0.9892. Above 1.0075 is required to question the bearish outlook and open 1.0141.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0655 GMT 0.9092 131.53 1.5075 0.9269
3 Day Trend Range Bullish Range Bullish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8836 133.53 1.5183 0.8358
3rd Resistance 0.9132 132.70 1.5135 0.9352
2nd Resistance 0.9087 132.22 1.5115 0.9323
1st Resistance 0.9063 131.76 1.5100 0.9284
Pivot* 0.9099 130.47 1.5081 0.9209
1st Support 0.8986 131.15 1.5067 0.9194
2nd Support 0.8949 130.57 1.5040 0.9108
3rd Support 0.8903 130.00 1.5012 0.9054
Intraday EUR/GBP: Consolidates the solid recovery off the Nov. 17 reaction low following Monday's sharp setback off 0.9153, which is 50% retracement of the larger 0.9412/0.8835 decline. However, only a break below the 0.9060 area would deepen the setback and bring the 0.8994/0.8980 area into focus. Regaining ground above 0.9121 and 0.9132 is required to threaten a return to the 0.9153 high.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Extends the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93 to force a break above 131.00. The pairing has regained ground within the symmetrical triangle pattern that originates back in April, and projections from Monday's higher low at 128.99 highlight the 132.22 area. Intraday congestion between 131.15 and 130.57 provides initial support, ahead of support in the 130.00 area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Remains beneath the range ceiling at 1.5100 as the bear trendline originating from the December 2008 reaction high at 1.5880 continues to dominate the tone. An intraday bull support line at 1.5067 is under threat, and a break through there would bring the focus back onto the range floor at 1.5040, which protects the recent Nov. 26 low at 1.5012.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Completed a corrective bull flag before moving sharply higher above 0.9194 to extend the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 0.8949. This keeps a 9-month bull support line intact, and a break through 0.9284 would bring the focus back onto the Nov. 25 lower high at 0.9323. An equality target lies at 0.9352. The bull flag congestion area between 0.9194 and 0.9108 should contain corrective dips, and only below there would concern bulls.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 02, 2009 03:00 ET (08:00 GMT)
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