By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNLONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF Spot 0648 GMT 1.5067 88.22 1.6556 1.0003 3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bearish 200 day ma 1.4326 93.28 1.6228 1.0620 3rd Resistance 1.5164 89.55 1.6721 1.0075 2nd Resistance 1.5142 88.85 1.6669 1.0043 1st Resistance 1.5102 88.48 1.6614 1.0027 Pivot* 1.5079 88.04 1.6597 0.9991 1st Support 1.5027 88.00 1.6462 0.9979 2nd Support 1.4970 87.54 1.6444 0.9960 3rd Support 1.4947 86.98 1.6380 0.9916Intraday EUR/USD: Falters just shy of the 2009 high at 1.5145 following the cap at 1.5142 Thursday. Dips need to be kept above 1.5027 in order to prevent leaving 1.5142 as a bull failure, so while 1.5027 remains intact, there is room for upside pressure on the 1.5097/1.5102 lower intraday highs. Below 1.5027 would indicate the need for a deeper retracement of the 1.4827/1.5142 recovery, exposing 1.4970 and potential for 1.4901.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The push above 87.55 Wednesday extends consolidation of the dominant bear trend and retraces the down move off the 91.34 lower high. However, this recovery can still be placed within a bear flag, and corrective gains will find resistance at former range lows at 88.75. The 61.8% retracement level lies at 88.85, adding weight to this resistance area which protects 89.55. Downside risk is still the greater threat, and a break below 87.54 would promote room for further weakness towards 86.98.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Suffers a sharp setback off 1.6721 Thursday as resistance protects the 1.6745 lower high. Dips will look to test the 1.6462/1.6444 support area (the latter is 61.85 retracement of the 1.6272/1.6721 recovery), and keeping this area intact would potentially realize an inverse head-and-shoulders continuation pattern on the daily chart. Above 1.6614 would lit the tone, although a break above 1.6669 is required to bring the focus back onto the 1.6721 high.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Continues to drift lower, although downside momentum has waned. The recovery off Thursday's low at 0.9960 needs to regain ground above 1.0043 in order to label 0.9960 as a bear failure, promoting room for further gains towards the 1.0075 lower high. However, while below 1.0043, risk of bear pressure on 0.9960 is still a threat, exposing the Nov. 26 reaction low at 0.9916 on concerted weakness.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
second table Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD Spot 0656 GMT 0.9050 132.60 1.5078 0.9310 3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Range Bullish Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish 200 day ma 0.8841 133.51 1.5181 0.8376 3rd Resistance 0.9192 134.22 1.5110 0.9376 2nd Resistance 0.9153 134.00 1.5100 0.9322 1st Resistance 0.9124 133.56 1.5092 0.9284 Pivot* 0.9060 131.37 1.5074 0.9258 1st Support 0.9055 132.50 1.5061 0.9216 2nd Support 0.9028 131.99 1.5040 0.9178 3rd Support 0.8995 131.00 1.5012 0.9134Intraday EUR/GBP: Retraced 38.2% of the 0.8835/0.9153 at 0.9028 before staging a good recovery. The prior bear threat should have been much worse, but the failure to even test the significant support cluster in the 0.8995/0.8980 area highlights the lack of bear power. Resistance at 0.9124 is under threat, and a break through there would re-open the week's high at 0.9153, ahead of the 0.9192 area. Only below 0.9028 would defer the bullish outlook.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: The strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93 reached 133.56 Wednesday before suffering a corrective setback. Keeping dips to 132.50 would bring the focus back onto the 133.56 high, and prompt further strength to the 134.22 area (1.618 Fibonacci extension). Loss of 132.50 would deepen the corrective setback towards the 131.00 area (38.2% retracement of the 126.93/133.56 recovery).
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Drifts lower beneath a 1-week bull support line around 1.5075. The range ceiling remains intact at 1.5100, and while the 1.5092 lower high caps, room exists for further drifting below 1.5061 towards the Nov. 26 low at 1.5040. Only above 1.5092 and 1.5100 would negate the bearish outlook and open 1.5110.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Suffered a setback off Wednesday's high at 0.9322 as the market undergoes consolidation of the recovery off 0.8949. However, dips are corrective and should find support in the 0.9194/0.9178 area. Regaining ground above 0.9284 would bring the focus back onto the 0.9322 high, opening 0.9376 and the 2009 high at 0.9404 set on Nov. 16. Below 0.9178 would deepen the corrective setback and expose the 0.9108 higher low.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 04, 2009 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT)
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