Торговый план GBPUSD. Анализ GBPUSD.

By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:


Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 0559 GMT 1.4847 88.92 1.6450 1.0173
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Range Range
200 day ma 1.4336 93.21 1.6233 1.0611
3rd Resistance 1.4970 90.78 1.6620 1.0242
2nd Resistance 1.4949 90.11 1.6529 1.0222
1st Resistance 1.4906 89.56 1.6484 1.0210
Pivot* 1.4830 89.67 1.6426 1.0193
1st Support 1.4795 88.77 1.6316 1.0146
2nd Support 1.4756 88.48 1.6272 1.0136
3rd Support 1.4703 88.30 1.6233 1.0102

Intraday EUR/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 1.4756 to relieve the sharp decline off the Dec. 3 high at 1.5142. Regaining ground above 1.4906 is required to promote further corrective upside towards the 1.4949/1.4970 area, although gains look capped beneath the pivotal 1.5000 level at this stage. Below 1.4756 would put short-term bears in control and expose the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.


Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance following the push below 89.05. Initial support lies at the 88.48 support cluster, which should be strong enough to contain dips and protect the 50% retracement level at 87.80. Regaining ground above 89.56 is required to negate the bear threat and re-open the 90.11 lower high.

Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.


Intraday GBP/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 1.6316 to protect the Nov. 27 reaction low at 1.6272. However, the failure to confirm a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern highlights the lack of bull momentum in this market, and only a break through 1.6484 would provide corrective relief, for 1.6529. While 1.6484 caps, risk of renewed bear pressure exists on the 1.6316 low, which would threaten a return to 1.6272. A deeper target lies at 1.6233, being 50% of a wide 4-month bull flag, ahead of a projected downside target at 1.6116.

Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.


Intraday USD/CHF: Forced a break into fresh 1-month highs to 1.0242 before suffering a corrective setback. Loss of 1.0146 would expose support in the 1.0136/1.0140 area, although scope for the 50% retracement level of the entire 0.9960/1.0245 advance at 1.0102 cannot be ruled out. Above 1.0210 would lift the tone and threaten a return to the 1.0242 high.

Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.

Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD

Spot 0639 GMT 0.9040 132.09 1.5110 0.9120
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Range Range Bullish
200 day ma 0.8844 133.51 1.5179 0.8391
3rd Resistance 0.9153 133.53 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 132.85 1.5149 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9078 132.39 1.5130 0.9175
Pivot* 0.9029 133.15 1.5114 0.9123
1st Support 0.9010 131.72 1.5099 0.9054
2nd Support 0.8992 131.00 1.5086 0.9032
3rd Support 0.8980 130.65 1.5055 0.8949

Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) remains capped beneath projected resistance at 0.9078. While 0.9078 remains intact, room exists for renewed bear pressure on the key 0.8992/0.8980 area, and a break though there would deepen the corrective setback towards 0.8955 and 0.8910. Above 0.9078 would put bulls in near-term control and force a move higher to test the Dec. 3 lower high at 0.9114.

Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.


Intraday EUR/JPY: Continues to undergo consolidation off the Dec. 4 high at 134.54, correcting the powerful 123.93/134.54 advance. Below 131.72 would extend the setback towards the 131.00/130.74 area, the latter marking the 50% retracement level which coincides with congestion lows at 130.65. Resistance lies at the pivotal 132.85 area, and a break through there is required to open the 133.68/133.87 area.

Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.


Intraday EUR/CHF: Forces a break through the 1-year bear resistance line at 1.5105 to reach 1.5130 Monday before undergoing consolidation. Support lies at former range highs at 1.5099 and 1.5086, and while these levels remain intact, room exists for renewed bull pressure on 1.5130, threatening further upside towards a projected target at 1.5149. Below 1.5086 is required to question the bullish outlook and expose the 1.5055 higher low.

Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.


Intraday AUD/USD: Stages a recovery off Monday's low at 0.9054 to halt the down move from the Dec. 3 high at 0.9322. Bulls will be keen to keep this support area intact, which is backed-up by a 10-month bull trendline at 0.9032 for this week. A break above 0.9175 is required to further lift the tone, opening 0.9195 and 0.9216. Only below 0.9054 would give bears near-term control and threaten a sharper setback towards the Nov. 27 higher reaction low at 0.8949.

Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.


* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.


For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"


-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com


Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.


Data provided by CQG International Ltd.


(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)


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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 08, 2009 02:44 ET (07:44 GMT)