Торговый план GBPUSD. Анализ GBPUSD.

By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:


Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 0613 GMT 1.4900 89.94 1.6510 1.0140
3 Day Trend Range Bullish Range Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Range Range
200 day ma 1.4331 93.25 1.6230 1.0615
3rd Resistance 1.5036 91.34 1.6721 1.0212
2nd Resistance 1.5000 90.78 1.6674 1.0200
1st Resistance 1.4981 90.38 1.6570 1.0192
Pivot* 1.4924 89.78 1.6524 1.0113
1st Support 1.4850 89.50 1.6425 1.0103
2nd Support 1.4821 88.50 1.6380 1.0076
3rd Support 1.4800 88.30 1.6272 1.0049

Intraday EUR/USD: Last week's rejection of the 2009 high at 1.5145 prompted a setback to 1.4821, testing a 9-month bull support line. There is room for a recovery to the 1.4981/1.5000 area, although regaining ground above 1.5080 is required to bring the focus back onto the 1.5145 high. Given the severity and sustainability of the decline off 1.5080, upside looks limited at this stage. Below 1.4821 would extend the setback and prompt further weakness towards 1.4800 and the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.


Intraday USD/JPY: Pushed strongly higher to shake off a bear wedge formation on the daily chart, and extend the recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 84.82. Resistance has emerged at 90.78 to consolidate the move, and support at 89.50 and former range highs around 88.50 is likely to come under threat. However, only a sustained break below 88.30 would suggest a significant high has been set at 90.78, in line with the dominant bearish longer-trend. Above 90.38 would bring the focus back onto the 90.78 high.

Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.


Intraday GBP/USD: The setback off 1.6721 touched 1.6425 before staging a recovery. An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern can be discerned on the daily chart, and keeping 1.6425 intact, combined with a break through 1.6570 would lift the tone sharply towards the 1.6674 lower high. The neckline lies at 1.6713 for Monday. Below 1.6425 would place doubts on the bullish pattern, exposing 1.6380 and the Nov. 27 reaction low at 1.6272.

Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.


Intraday USD/CHF: Pushed sharply higher back above the pivotal 1.0033 level following the rejection off the Dec. 3 marginal low at 0.9960. Above 1.0192 would bring a 2-month bear resistance line at 1.0212 within striking distance, which has defined a descending triangle since the beginning of October. Corrective dips have room for the 1.0076/1.0086 support area, although only below 1.0033 would suggest a return to the 0.9980 higher low.

Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.

Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD

Spot 0647 GMT 0.9029 133.93 1.5105 0.9159
3 Day Trend Bearish Bullish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8842 133.51 1.5180 0.8384
3rd Resistance 0.9153 135.76 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 135.40 1.5135 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9078 134.54 1.5113 0.9187
Pivot* 0.9041 133.72 1.5088 0.9183
1st Support 0.8992 132.50 1.5100 0.9110
2nd Support 0.8980 131.99 1.5084 0.9032
3rd Support 0.8955 131.00 1.5075 0.8949

Intraday EUR/GBP: Retraced 50% of the 0.8835/0.9153 recovery to touch 0.8992 before staging a recovery. This key support cluster area extends to 0.8980 and should provide a short-term base from which to test 0.9078, despite last week's bearish higher high, lower close candle. Above 0.9078 would strengthen the 0.8992 low and bring the focus back onto the Dec. 3 lower high at 0.9114. Only below 0.8992/0.8980 would prompt further weakness towards 0.8955 and 0.8910.

Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.


Intraday EUR/JPY: Maintains the strong recovery off the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93 to retrace over 61.8% of the dominant downmove off 138.49. Resistance has emerged at 134.54 to prompt a corrective setback, but the swift rejection of the move to 126.93 suggests a false downside break. Initial support lies at 132.50, although dips should be contained above the 130.74/131.00 support area. Above 134.54 would extend the recovery towards the Nov. 4 lower high at 135.76.

Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.


Intraday EUR/CHF: Stages a strong recovery off Friday's near-term low at 1.5055 to force a break above 1.5100. The 1-year bear resistance line at 1.5105 for this week has been breached, and a break through 1.5113 would bring the recent spike high at 1.5135 into focus. Support lies at former range highs around 1.5100, although corrective dips should be contained above 1.5084.

Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.


Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the setback off the Dec. 3 high at 0.9322 following the break below 0.9216. Support has emerged at 0.9110, although regaining ground above 0.9187 is required to lift the tone and bring the focus back to the upside, opening 0.9216 and the 0.9293 lower high on concerted strength. Loss of 0.9110 would put near-term bears in control and expose 10-month bull trendline support at 0.9032 for the week.

Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.


* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.


For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"


-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com


Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.


Data provided by CQG International Ltd.


(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)


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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 07, 2009 02:53 ET (07:53 GMT)