By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels: Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0539 GMT 1.4638 88.90 1.6285 1.0335
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Range Bullish
Weekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 1.4353 92.98 1.6235 1.0595
3rd Resistance 1.4865 89.81 1.6425 1.0400
2nd Resistance 1.4783 89.32 1.6380 1.0368
1st Resistance 1.4700 89.01 1.6337 1.0345
Pivot* 1.4648 88.75 1.6279 1.0323
1st Support 1.4617 88.32 1.6198 1.0296
2nd Support 1.4586 87.90 1.6170 1.0270
3rd Support 1.4480 87.72 1.6115 1.0235
Intraday EUR/USD: The weak tone dominates the market following last week's clean break of a 10-month bull support line. Consolidation off the 1.4586 low should be capped beneath recent congestion resistance in the 1.4777.0/1.4783 area, and in the meantime, risk exists for renewed bear pressure on the 1.4586 low. Below there would create scope for further weakness towards the 1.4480/1.4440 support area. Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Monday's inside day highlights the lack of direction in this market within the medium-term 84.82/90.78 range. The near-term bias appears to be skewed slightly towards the bull camp, and a break above 89.32 would back this view, re-opening the Dec. 11 reaction high at 89.81. Loss of Monday's low at 88.32 would put near-term bears in control and expose the higher low at 87.90.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Remains trapped within a 4-day lateral consolidation pattern, consolidating the recent 1.6721/1.6170 decline. While the 1.6380 area caps corrective gains, bears will look to extend the dominant weak tone and renew pressure on the Dec. 9 reaction low at 1.6170. Below there would confirm a bear pennant/rectangle consolidation pattern and create room for further weakness towards projected support at 1.6115. However, given the strong underlying bear momentum, there is scope for the 1.6000 area. Regaining ground above 1.6380 would provide temporary relief and open 1.6425.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Bulls have claimed the upper hand by forging a fresh 1-month high at 1.0368 last Friday. Consolidation is underway, but while dips are limited to Monday's low at 1.0296, room exists for renewed pressure on the 1.0368 high. A break through there would create room for 1.0400 and the Oct. 1 lower high at 1.0453. Below 1.0296 would extend corrective weakness towards the 1.0270 area, but dips should be limited while above the 1.0235 higher low.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0615 GMT 0.8991 130.17 1.5130 0.9133
3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8853 133.33 1.5176 0.8427
3rd Resistance 0.9095 131.60 1.5178 0.9216
2nd Resistance 0.9069 131.01 1.5146 0.9198
1st Resistance 0.9044 130.68 1.5134 0.9173
Pivot* 0.9003 129.96 1.5122 0.9177
1st Support 0.8950 129.36 1.5114 0.9060
2nd Support 0.8934 128.78 1.5106 0.9017
3rd Support 0.8903 126.93 1.5096 0.8976
Intraday EUR/GBP: Weakens below last week's low at 0.8992 to put euro bears in control of the near-term direction. Confirmation of a lower high at 0.9095 promotes room for further weakness towards projected targets at 0.8950 and 0.8934, although weakness is not wholly convincing. Regaining ground above 0.9044 is required to question the bearish outlook and confirm a bear failure, while re-opening the 0.9095 lower high at the same time. Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Has become directionless, but perhaps with a slight bearish bias due to last Friday's sharp rejection at the 131.60 high. Below Monday's low at 129.36 would put the Dec. 9 low at 128.78 under renewed bear pressure, and a clean break below there would create room for further weakness towards the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93. Above 130.68 is required to improve the near-term outlook and threaten a retest of the 131.60 high.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: The bulls are in control after setting a 3-week high at 1.5134 last Friday, and closing above a 1-year bear trendline at 1.5104 on the weekly chart. The 1.5134 high is back in focus, and a break through there would extend the recovery towards the Nov. 19 reaction high at 1.5146. Concerted strength would create potential for the late October spike high at 1.5178. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.5106, which protects the Dec. 9 higher low at 1.5096.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Maintains an overall bearish near-term bias despite this recovery off the Dec. 9 low at 0.9017. While last Friday's high at 0.9198 caps, room exists for renewed bear pressure on 0.9017, threatening room for further weakness towards the neckline of an 8-week head-and-shoulders top, at 0.8976. Only above 0.9198 would question the bearish outlook and open 0.9293.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 15, 2009 02:12 ET (07:12 GMT)
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