By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF Spot 0605 GMT 1.4999 87.38 1.6421 1.0054 3 Day Trend Range Bearish Bearish Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Range 200 day ma 1.5145 93.46 1.6217 1.0639 3rd Resistance 1.5085 88.57 1.6644 1.0176 2nd Resistance 1.5041 87.86 1.6590 1.0141 1st Resistance 1.4991 87.54 1.6538 1.0080 Pivot* 1.5018 86.57 1.6470 1.0040 1st Support 1.4970 86.03 1.6380 0.9993 2nd Support 1.4926 85.86 1.6347 0.9916 3rd Support 1.4869 84.82 1.6272 0.9900 Intraday EUR/USD: Volatility remains present following the strong recovery off last Friday's low at 1.4827. Euro bulls were capped at 1.5085 to protect the 2009 high set on Nov. 25, and keeping 1.4970 intact would re-open the 1.5041 lower high which shields 1.5085. Below 1.4970 would put near-term bears in control for deeper consolidation towards the 1.4926 area.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Builds on the recovery off the Nov. 25 14-year low at 84.82, following the breach of 87.45. This confirms an intraday higher low at 85.86 and calls for further gains towards 87.86 and 88.57 (the latter is 50% retracement of the dominant 92.33/84.82 decline). However, the hurdle at 87.54 needs to be cleared first before feeling bullish about this pairing, which is in a strong longer-term downtrend. Below 85.86 would confirm a bull failure at 87.54 and bring the focus back onto the 84.82 reaction low.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Consolidates the 1.6272/1.6590 advance to keep the retracement limited to 50% of the 1.6877/1.6272 decline. Sterling bulls will be keen to keep the 1.6347 area intact to protect the 1.6272, as a break below there would put near-term bears in control and expose room for sharper weakness towards 1.6119. A break through 1.6590 is required to lift the mood and open the Nov. 25 lower high at 1.6745.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Suffers a setback off last Friday's high at 1.0176 to consolidate the strong recovery off the 2009 low at 0.9916, set on Nov. 26. However, Monday's low at 0.9993 is likely to come under threat, and a break through there would bring the focus back onto the 0.9916 low. Above 1.0080 is required to lift the tone and re-open the 1.0141 lower high.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD Spot 0711 GMT 0.9143 130.60 1.5075 0.9141 3 Day Trend Bullish Range Range Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bullish 200 day ma 0.8834 133.56 1.5184 0.8349 3rd Resistance 0.9201 132.23 1.5117 0.9248 2nd Resistance 0.9192 131.76 1.5100 0.9194 1st Resistance 0.9153 131.28 1.5090 0.9181 Pivot* 0.9116 129.84 1.5074 0.9152 1st Support 0.9084 129.84 1.5060 0.9108 2nd Support 0.9060 129.00 1.5047 0.9072 3rd Support 0.9044 127.65 1.5040 0.9000 Intraday EUR/GBP: Maintains the strong recovery off the Nov. 25 higher low at 0.8980 to force a break into fresh near-term highs above 0.9133. The focus is back on Monday's high at 0.9153, and a break through there would open the solid 0.9192/0.9201 resistance cluster, protecting the Oct. 26 lower high at 0.9239. Downside risk is limited at this stage, with 0.9084 and 0.9060 likely to contain corrective dips.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Extends the strong recovery off last Friday's low at 126.93 to probe above 131.00 and confirm a higher low at 129.00. However, a sustained break through 131.00 is required to promote room above the cap at 131.28, for potential to the 133.00 area. While 131.28 caps, a break below 129.00 would put near-term bears in control and bring the focus back to the downside, exposing 127.65.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Volatility has dissipated as the pairing undergoes consolidation of the 1.5012/1.5135 recovery. The market is back within a 1.5040/1.5100 range, and trading within a large intraday symmetrical triangle. The upper boundary, now at 1.5092, has foiled a recent attempt to break out this triangle, and suggests the lower boundary is now the target around 1.5060. Longer-term, a downside break is favoured to retest the Nov. 26 low at 1.5012.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Undergoes flag-like consolidation of the recovery off last Friday's low at 0.8949, which keeps a 9-month bull support line intact. Corrective dips should be limited to the 0.9072 area (50% retracement of the 0.8949/0.9194 advance) before renewing pressure on the 0.9194 high, and a break through there would prompt further gains towards the Nov. 25 lower high at 0.9323. Below 0.9072 would deepen consolidation towards the 0.9000 area.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 01, 2009 03:03 ET (08:03 GMT)
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