By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0554 GMT 1.4709 87.80 1.6243 1.0284
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bearish
200 day ma 1.4344 93.11 1.6233 1.0604
3rd Resistance 1.4906 89.07 1.6430 1.0381
2nd Resistance 1.4864 88.70 1.6375 1.0338
1st Resistance 1.4760 88.39 1.6315 1.0302
Pivot* 1.4724 87.98 1.6269 1.0263
1st Support 1.4665 87.36 1.6170 1.0247
2nd Support 1.4626 87.10 1.6115 1.0220
3rd Support 1.4509 86.50 1.6023 1.0165
Intraday EUR/USD: Stages a recovery off Wednesday's low at 1.4665 to halt the 5-day down move and protect the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626. However, a break above 1.4760 is required to build on the recovery, and bring scope for further corrective gains towards the 1.4906 area (50% retracement of the 1.5142/1.4665 decline). At this stage, only above there would upgrade the recovery, but the market may be looking to form a head-and-shoulders top on the daily chart. Loss of 1.4626 would put bears in control and expose the Oct. 2 higher low at 1.4480.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance below the 50% retracement level before finding support at 87.36. The recovery appears sluggish, although there is scope for further gains towards the 89.07 area, and only above there would the recovery be given an upgrade. Loss of 87.36 would deepen the setback towards 87.10 and 86.50.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Set a fresh near-term low below 1.6272 to extend the 2-3 week decline and complete a head-and-shoulders top. With the 1.6430 area capping the upside, room exists for renewed bear pressure on the 1.6170 low, creating scope for further weakness towards 1.6115 and the 1.6000 area. Above Wednesday's high at 1.6375 would provide relief, although only above 1.6430 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Wednesday's hanging man suggests a temporary top to this 5-day rally has been reached at 1.0302. However, corrective dips will find support at 1.0220 initially, and only a break below there would indicate room for further corrective weakness towards 1.0165/1.0140. Above 1.0302 would extend the powerful advance to 1.0338 and 1.0381.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0633 GMT 0.9056 129.26 1.5122 0.9129
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8848 133.43 1.5178 0.8405
3rd Resistance 0.9153 131.66 1.5146 0.9293
2nd Resistance 0.9114 130.98 1.5135 0.9216
1st Resistance 0.9095 130.36 1.5130 0.9177
Pivot* 0.9052 129.55 1.5112 0.9072
1st Support 0.9005 128.78 1.5118 0.9017
2nd Support 0.8992 126.93 1.5096 0.8971
3rd Support 0.8950 125.00 1.5076 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) is threatening a break through 0.9095 to extend the move up to the 0.9114 lower high. Above there would open the Nov. 30 reaction high at 0.9153. Only failing to break 0.9095 would negate the bullish outlook and bring the focus back onto the 0.8992 low.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Sharply extends the setback from the Dec. 4 reaction high at 134.54 Wednesday, touching 128.78 before staging a recovery. The 128.78 area represents 76.4% retracement of the 126.93/134.54 advance, and bulls will want to keep this level intact in order to build on the recovery and re-open the 134.54 high in the medium-term. Regaining ground above 130.36 is required to open the 131.66 area. Only below 128.78 would question the near-term bullish outlook and expose the Nov. 27 reaction low.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Consolidation off Monday's 7-day high at 1.5130 has been contained at 1.5096 following Wednesday's strong recovery. The focus is back on the 1.5130 high, and a break through there would open 1.5135 and 1.5146. Below 1.5118 would suggest longer consolidation is required, and create scope for a return to the 1.5096 low.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: An 8-week head-and-shoulders top is forming on the daily chart, and pressure is building on the neckline at 0.8971. The 10-month bull support line at 0.9130 for this week has been breached, and a break below 0.9017 would expose the key 0.8971 neckline. Below there would expose the 0.8949/0.8909 reactions lows, and would highlight a longer-term target in the 0.8500 area. Regaining ground above 0.9177 would provide relief, opening 0.9216.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 10, 2009 02:23 ET (07:23 GMT)
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