By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0612 GMT 1.4537 89.53 1.6244 1.0411
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 1.4355 92.95 1.6235 1.0591
3rd Resistance 1.4777 90.78 1.6380 1.0500
2nd Resistance 1.4666 90.11 1.6337 1.0453
1st Resistance 1.4572 89.95 1.6319 1.0430
Pivot* 1.4569 89.38 1.6265 1.0382
1st Support 1.4503 89.13 1.6207 1.0363
2nd Support 1.4480 88.78 1.6170 1.0345
3rd Support 1.4450 88.32 1.6115 1.0300
Intraday EUR/USD: The weak tone dominates the market following the break into fresh 10-11 week lows below 1.4586. Bears are testing the 1.4500 area, and back-up support lies at 1.4480 and in the 1.4450 area. Above 1.4572 would provide relief, although only regaining ground above 1.4666 would suggest a basing attempt is underway. Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Bulls extend the recovery off the Dec. 9 low at 87.36 following Tuesday's probe above 89.81. Above 89.95 is required to bring the focus back onto the key Dec. 4 high at 90.78, and threaten to leave the 2009 low at 84.82 as a significant long-term low. Dips will be regarded as corrective while above 88.78.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Remains trapped within a 5-day lateral consolidation pattern, consolidating last week's 1.6721/1.6170 decline. While the 1.6380 area caps corrective gains, bears will look to extend the dominant weak tone and renew pressure on the Dec. 9 reaction low at 1.6170. Below there would confirm a bear pennant/rectangle consolidation pattern and create room for further weakness towards projected support at 1.6115. However, given the strong underlying bear momentum, there is scope for the 1.6000 area. Above 1.6319 would provide relief, although only regaining ground above 1.6380 would lift the tone and open 1.6425.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Bulls have claimed the upper hand by forging a fresh 1-month high at 1.0430 Tuesday. While corrective dips are contained above 1.0363, room exists for renewed bull pressure on 1.0430, with the Oct. 1 descending triangle high at 1.0453 the key target. Solid support lies in the 1.0300 area.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0635 GMT 0.8947 130.16 1.5135 0.9006
3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bullish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Bullish
200 day ma 0.8854 133.30 1.5176 0.8434
3rd Resistance 0.9069 131.60 1.5204 0.9198
2nd Resistance 0.9044 131.01 1.5178 0.9173
1st Resistance 0.8992 130.74 1.5146 0.9091
Pivot* 0.8955 130.23 1.5125 0.9177
1st Support 0.8929 129.54 1.5117 0.8967
2nd Support 0.8903 129.36 1.5106 0.8949
3rd Support 0.8890 128.78 1.5096 0.8909
Intraday EUR/GBP: Bears take control of the near-term as they look to build on Tuesday's sharp break below 0.8982. Below 0.8929 would prompt further weakness towards 0.8903 and 0.8890, although only below there would expose the key Nov. 17 reaction low at 0.8835. Regaining ground above the 0.8982/0.8992 resistance area is required to question the bearish outlook, opening 0.9044. Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Has become directionless, but perhaps with a slight bearish bias due to last Friday's sharp rejection at the 131.60 high. Below Monday's low at 129.36 would put the Dec. 9 low at 128.78 under renewed bear pressure, and a clean break below there would create room for further weakness towards the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93. Above 130.74 is required to improve the near-term outlook and threaten a retest of the 131.60 high.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Bulls are in control after setting fresh 4-week highs above 1.5135, and closing above a 1-year bear trendline at 1.5104 on the weekly chart. Further strength is favoured towards the Nov. 19 spike high at 1.5146, and sustained gains above there would re-open the Oct. 30 spike high at 1.5178. Only below Tuesday's low at 1.5117 would question the bullish outlook and expose 1.5096.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Bears have grasped near-term control to challenge the neckline of a 2-month head-and-shoulders top pattern, at 0.8977. A successful break below 0.8967 will expose the 0.8949 and 0.8909 lows, but with room for further weakness towards projected downside targets at 0.8867 and 0.8745. Regaining ground above 0.9091 is required to defer the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 16, 2009 02:23 ET (07:23 GMT)
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