By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNLONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF Spot 0603 GMT 1.4634 88.59 1.6321 1.0330 3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish Weekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Range 200 day ma 1.4351 93.03 1.6234 1.0598 3rd Resistance 1.4865 90.78 1.6375 1.0453 2nd Resistance 1.4783 89.81 1.6337 1.0400 1st Resistance 1.4700 89.32 1.6270 1.0368 Pivot* 1.4659 89.03 1.6265 1.0315 1st Support 1.4586 88.39 1.6170 1.0302 2nd Support 1.4480 87.73 1.6115 1.0266 3rd Support 1.4440 87.36 1.6023 1.0235Intraday EUR/USD: The weak tone dominates the market following last week's clean break of a 10-month bull support line, and the break below 1.4665 brings the 1.4480/1.4440 support area into focus. Corrective gains should be capped beneath recent congestion resistance in the 1.4783/1.4777 area, and only a sustained break above there would lift the tone, opening 1.4865.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Weakness off Friday's high at 89.81 is testing important intraday support at 88.39. A clean break below there would create room for further weakness towards the 87.73 higher low, which will look to protect the Dec. 9 low at 87.36. However, keeping 88.39 intact, followed by a break above 89.32 would suggest a rejection of the 87.73 low, and open the 89.81 high. Aided by last week's close in the upper half of the weekly range, bulls may lay a claim to holding the upper hand, and a break through 89.81 would bring the focus back onto the Dec. 4 reaction high at 90.78.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Bears are looking to extend the weak tone an is putting pressure on the Dec. 9 reaction low at 1.6170. Below there would confirm a bear pennant termination high at 1.6337 and promote room for further weakness towards projected support at 1.6115, although given the strong underlying bear momentum, there is scope for the 1.6000 area. Regaining ground above 1.6270 would provide temporary relief, although corrective gains should be limited to the 1.6337/1.6375 resistance area.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Bulls have claimed the upper hand to force a break into fresh 1-month highs, and are set to forge further gains towards 1.0400 and the Oct. 1 lower high at 1.0453. Corrective dips should be contained above former range highs at 1.0302, with 1.0235 providing back-up.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
second table Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD Spot 0648 GMT 0.9009 129.63 1.5123 0.9063 3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bullish Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish 200 day ma 0.8852 133.36 1.5177 0.8420 3rd Resistance 0.9114 131.60 1.5178 0.9293 2nd Resistance 0.9095 131.01 1.5146 0.9216 1st Resistance 0.9069 130.68 1.5134 0.9198 Pivot* 0.9014 130.59 1.5123 0.9177 1st Support 0.8950 128.78 1.5116 0.9050 2nd Support 0.8934 126.93 1.5106 0.9017 3rd Support 0.8903 125.00 1.5096 0.8973Intraday EUR/GBP: Weakens below last week's low at 0.8992 to put euro bears in control of the near-term direction. Confirmation of a lower high at 0.9095 promotes room for further weakness towards projected targets at 0.8950 and 0.8934, although weakness is not wholly convincing. Regaining ground above 0.9069 is required to question the bearish outlook and re-open the 0.9095 lower high.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Friday's sharp rejection at the 131.60 high suggests the Dec. 9 low at 128.78 is to come under renewed bear pressure, and a clean break below there would create room for further weakness towards the Nov. 27 reaction low at 126.93. Above 130.68 would provide temporary relief, although only regaining ground above 131.60 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Bulls are in control after setting a 3-week high at 1.5134 Friday and closing above a 1-year bear trendline at 1.5104 on the weekly chart. Above 1.5134 would extend the recovery towards the Nov. 19 reaction high at 1.5146. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.5106, which protects the Dec. 9 higher low at 1.5096.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Maintains an overall bearish bias despite this recovery off 0.9050. While Friday's high at 0.9198 caps, room exists for renewed bear pressure on the Dec. 9 low at 0.9017, threatening room for further weakness towards the neckline of an 8-week head-and-shoulders top, at 0.8973. Only above 0.9198 would question the bearish outlook and open 0.9293.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 14, 2009 03:04 ET (08:04 GMT)
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