By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0556 GMT 1.4911 86.03 1.6401 1.0100
3 Day Trend Range Bearish Bearish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range Range
200 day ma 1.4289 93.60 1.6213 1.0651
3rd Resistance 1.5060 87.75 1.6610 1.0248
2nd Resistance 1.5023 87.04 1.6577 1.0224
1st Resistance 1.4959 86.54 1.6502 1.0202
Pivot* 1.5040 86.79 1.6549 1.0005
1st Support 1.4896 84.82 1.6292 1.0044
2nd Support 1.4800 82.50 1.6262 1.0030
3rd Support 1.4773 82.30 1.6254 0.9991
Intraday EUR/USD: Weakness extends below Wednesday's low at 1.4956 to leave Wednesday's high at 1.5145 stranded. The failure to hold onto gains after setting fresh '09 highs above 1.5064 suggests a significant rejection at these lofty levels. However, a break below 1.4896 is required to confirm a significant top and bring the focus back onto the bull wedge Nov. 20 low at 1.4800, with an 8-month bull support line providing back-up at 1.4777. Keeping 1.4896 intact would prompt a recovery towards 1.5023 (50% retracement area), although only regaining ground above 1.5099 would re-open the 1.5145 high.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Quickens the pace of the bear trend into fresh '09 lows (and 14-year lows) following the break below 86.29, and the initial downside target area around 85.00 has been met. This recovery off 84.82 needs to regain ground above 86.54 in order to lift the tone, although recoveries are considered corrective at this stage, and limited to the confluence of Fibonacci levels around 87.75. Former range lows at 88.01 provide back-up resistance. Below 84.82 would prompt further weakness towards the second downside target around the 82.50/82.30 area.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Suffers a sharp setback to break into fresh near-term low below 1.6462. This confirms Wednesday's high at 1.6745 as a lower high, and prompts a test of the equality target at 1.6330. However, scope exists for a sustained break below there, targeting 50% retracement of the 1.5708/1.6877 advance, which lies at 1.6292. The late October/early November consolidation lows at 1.6254 and 1.6262 provide backup. Recoveries should be limited to the 1.6502/1.6577 area, and only above there would suggest a return to the 1.6610 area.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: Continues the recovery off Thursday's low at 0.9916 to break back into the former range above 1.0030. However, it still trades within a 2-month descending triangle pattern, so the upside should be limited to the bear resistance line at 1.0248 for Friday. The Nov. 20 lower high at 1.0224 protects 1.0248. Support lies at 1.0044, and only sustained weakness below 1.0030 would bring the focus back onto the 0.9916 low.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0555 GMT 0.9093 128.21 1.5066 0.9017
3 Day Trend Bullish Range Range Bearish
Weekly Trend Range Range Range Bullish
200 day ma 0.8828 133.64 1.5186 0.8297
3rd Resistance 0.9201 131.01 1.5135 0.9151
2nd Resistance 0.9192 130.00 1.5110 0.9101
1st Resistance 0.9133 129.35 1.5100 0.9047
Pivot* 0.9088 130.51 1.5071 0.9181
1st Support 0.9057 126.93 1.5062 0.8949
2nd Support 0.8980 125.00 1.5040 0.8909
3rd Support 0.8949 124.38 1.5012 0.8770
Intraday EUR/GBP: Sets a fresh near-term high at 0.9133 (50% retracement of the 0.9412/0.8835 decline) before undergoing consolidation. However, dips should find support at former intraday range highs in the 0.9057 area before looking to retest the 0.9133 high. A break through 0.9133 would open the 0.9192/0.9201 area on concerted strength. Below 9057.0 would extend the setback as part of deeper consolidation of the 0.8835/0.9133 advance, targeting 0.8980.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Maintains the recent weak tone following the sharp break below an 8-month bull support line just above the 130.00 level. An ascending triangle pattern has been negated, and this recovery off the 126.93 low needs to break above 129.35 to retest the 130.00 level. However, upside looks corrective at the stage. Risk exists for renewed bear pressure on the 126.93 low, exposing the April low at 124.38.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Stages a recovery off 1.5040 to protect Thursday's low at 1.5012. Above 1.5100 would re-open the 1.5110 and the Thursday's high at 1.5135, which is where an 11-month bear resistance line caps for this current week. Action since the 1.5012 low has been volatile and could be forming a pennant. Below 1.5040 would bring the 1.5012 low back into focus.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the weak tone following the break into fresh near-term lows to confirm Wednesday's high as a lower high at 0.9323. A 9-month bull support line at 0.8956 has been breached, and a break below 0.8949 is being threatened. Further weakness exists for the November low at 0.8909, and a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 0.8770 lies on concerted weakness. Above 0.9047 is required to provide relief and open the intraday lower high at 0.9151.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security or currency. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 27, 2009 03:25 ET (08:25 GMT)
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